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USD/JPY Pressured by Record-Smashing Spike in Jobless Claims

USD/JPY Pressured by Record-Smashing Spike in Jobless Claims

2020-03-26 15:33:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST: US DOLLAR PLUNGES AGAINST YEN AS WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS EXPLODE ON CORONAVIRUS FALLOUT

  • USD/JPY slipped more than 200-pips from Wednesday’s high as the US Dollar starts to give back recent gains
  • US Dollar weakness gained pace following the jaw-dropping 3.3 million rise in weekly jobless claims amid the coronavirus lockdown
  • Spot USD/JPY price action now testing confluent support around the 110.00 handle

I noted on Tuesday that the US Dollar was beginning to come under pressure as FX volatility ebbs and the FOMC ramps up liquidity efforts. Downside in the US Dollar has since accelerated after historic jobless claims data exploded off the charts. US Dollar weakness was witnessed particularly in USD/JPY as the Yen gained ground – perhaps due to its status as a safe-haven currency.

USD/JPY BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 35% 9% 18%
Weekly 54% 18% 31%
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USD/JPY PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 17 TO MARCH 26, 2020)

USDJPY Price Chart US Dollar to Yen Forecast

USD/JPY is now down roughly 200-pips since the intraday high printed during the prior trading session, but spot prices now test technical support near the 110.00 level. This area of confluence is underscored by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the year-to-date range recorded by USD/JPY.

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Also, buoyancy may be provided to spot USD/JPY price action by the bottom barrier of its Bollinger Band. The 50-EMA might offer a degree of technical support as well. If the March 20 intraday low gives way, however, USD/JPY could continue to edge lower toward the 108.00 handle.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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