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Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Strategist

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | Contained by Cluster of DMA’s
  • Australian Dollar Rises on Retail Sales Report
  • Jobs and Inflation Reports are Pivotal to February Rate Decision

AUD/USD | Contained by Cluster of DMA’s

AUD/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 14% 2%
Weekly -5% -16% -8%
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Overnight, the Australian Dollar had been supported by better than expected retail sales data amid the impact of Black Friday sales. Although, while this may have seen a slight easing of RBA rate cut bets, the seasonal effects in the data somewhat masks the underlying strength of consumption, therefore a clearer image will be provided in the December report. That said, with expectations of a rate cut from the RBA in February split 50/50 focus will be firmly fixed on the Australian jobs report (Jan 23rd) and CPI figures (Jan 29th).

On the technical front, AUD/USD has been contained between 0.6850-0.6900 as the pair consolidates after its topside rejection from the beginning of the year. On the downside, support is situated at 0.6838, which marks the December 17/18th double bottom and coincides with the 100DMA, while topside resistance hovers around 0.6890-0.6900.

Implied range for next week (0.6820 – 0.6930)

SupportResistance
0.6838Dec 17/18 double bottom0.6882Yesterday’s High
0.6825Trendline Support0.6890-0.6900-
0.6800Dec 10th low0.6950-

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Mar 2019 Jan 2020)

Source: IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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