News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.76% Gold: 0.38% Oil - US Crude: 0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/V4XICPZVar
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.80%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/LBx0DcXYmu
  • Check out @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter discuss today’s currency market catalysts driving the dollar index, Euro, Sterling, Yen, and more on today’s Macro Setup with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal:https://t.co/Dtdx6xBX7q
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.06% FTSE 100: -0.10% Germany 30: -0.26% Wall Street: -0.32% France 40: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cZ9djYlhxo
  • $Nas 100, the test... the zone from 11,570-11,626 was resistance in the $Nasdaq in early Sept & and early Oct. Came back as support last week, held the lows into yday. Now showing potential resistance - but will sellers show up? $QQQ https://t.co/ViENP066Hz https://t.co/h2LYiXGGcW
  • RT @GuyAdami: Profile pictures notwithstanding, this was another worthwhile conversation. Thank you @JohnKicklighter from @DailyFX for join…
  • S&P 500 Price Forecast: SPX Tests Huge Zone at Bull Flag Support https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/10/27/SPX-SPY-ES-Price-Forecast-SPX-Tests-Huge-Zone-at-Bull-Flag-Support.html $SPX $SPY $ES https://t.co/Pu2IgKdY5E
  • ....also, the outlook with a third peak in Covid cases in the US - and spread globally - is going to seriously undermine the sustainability of growth
  • A lot is being made of how remarkable the forecasted 31% increase in US GDP for 3Q would be if we hit the number Thursday, but remember the context. We are coming off a -31.4% plunge. You need an even bigger recovery to get back up to pace starting from a hole https://t.co/oBJKnOVgqu
  • is possible that USD/CAD is trying to carve a higher-low from the September 1 low, but some more work is needed to turn the near-term favorable for taking long-side bets. Get your $USDCAD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/qNZxsbcXZO https://t.co/tZbYH8fG2h
Philippine Peso Up as Crude Oil Prices Fuel CPI, USD/PHP May Fall

Philippine Peso Up as Crude Oil Prices Fuel CPI, USD/PHP May Fall

2020-01-07 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Philippine Peso, Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, BSP- Talking Points

  • Philippine Peso gained on stronger-than-expected local inflation
  • Philippine CPI pushed higher by taxes and rising crude oil prices
  • BSP increased upside inflation outlook, USD/PHP eyeing support

Philippine Peso Gains as Crude Oil Prices Help Fuel Local Inflation

The Philippine Peso extended its rally against the US Dollar on Tuesday following a stronger-than-expected local inflation report. USD/PHP has been on a near-term decline after fears of US-Iran geopolitical escalation cooled. Now the focus appears to have shifted to how the data could potentially drive the Philippine Central Bank (BSP) ahead.

Inflation surprised at 2.5 percent y/y in December versus 2.0% expected and up from 1.3% in November. That was the highest reading since June 2019 and could be explained by a couple of reasons. First, alcoholic beverage and tobacco CPI clocked in at 18.4% which was the fastest pace since the end of 2018. This followed speculation and introduction of excise taxes on these products by the government last year.

Meanwhile, transportation costs increased 2.2% during the same period which was the strongest since the Summer of 2019. This is also in conjunction with the rally in crude oil prices since October. The commodity is a key import. Shortly after the data crossed the wires, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said that the risk to their inflation outlook is tilted to the upside for 2020.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
What is the road ahead for oil in the first quarter?
Get My Guide

Looking at the chart below, you can see the close relationship between WTI Crude Oil and headline Philippine CPI. The BSP still sees a 25-bp rate cut during the first quarter, but rising local bond yields on the data likely dented further easing bets. Further gains in the commodity would likely continue reducing these expectations, perhaps offering some lift to the PHP. Though US-Iran geopolitical risks may cool gains.

Philippine Peso Up as Crude Oil Prices Fuel CPI, USD/PHP May Fall

Philippine Peso Technical Analysis

USD/PHP turned lower after failing to push into the key psychological barrier between 51.13 and 51.30. Prices have been in a consolidation mode since bottoming in November. That places the focus on key support which is a range between 50.40 and 50.52. Taking out the latter opens the door to prolonging the former downtrend. To learn more, check out my latest ASEAN technical outlook.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Philippine Peso Up as Crude Oil Prices Fuel CPI, USD/PHP May Fall

Chart Created in TradingView

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil prices found restraint after accelerating the advance through falling resistance from April, red line on the chart below. Resistance held as the horizontal range between 63.32 to 64.05. On balance, the push above the trend line leaves the near-term technical bias to the upside. However, recent changes in IG Client Sentiment offer a downside outlook at the time of this writing.

Starts in:
Live now:
Nov 04
( 00:11 GMT )
Join me as I teach using this tool in your own strategy
What Do Other Traders Buy/Sell Bets Say About Price Trends?
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES