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Gold Prices Soar as US Airstrike on Iranian Military Leader Sparks Major Escalation in Tensions

Gold Prices Soar as US Airstrike on Iranian Military Leader Sparks Major Escalation in Tensions

2020-01-03 09:10:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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Gold Price Analysis and Talking Points

  • Gold Prices Buoyed by Geopolitical Risk Premium
  • Firm ISM Manufacturing PMI May Provide Stumbling Block
Gold BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 9% 1%
Weekly 1% 6% 2%
What does it mean for price action?
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Gold Prices Buoyed by Geopolitical Risk Premium

Gold prices have soared in response to an escalation in middle east tensions after US airstrikes had killed Iran’s Soleimani, who was the head of the elite Quds Force, alongside a top Iraqi militia commander. This attack has come after recent tensions in the region, in which a US contractor had been reportedly killed by Iraqi militia, while protestors had also stormed the US embassy in Baghdad. Consequently, Iran’s Supreme Leader has vowed a harsh retaliation and thus risk premium may keep gold prices tilted to the upside.

Firm ISM Manufacturing PMI May Provide Stumbling Block

As we have noted previously, seasonal factors are typically supportive for gold throughout January. In turn, with gold making a firm break above $1530, eyes now are for a test of the 2019 peak at $1557. However, one thing to keep in mind is the ISM Manufacturing PMI where market consensus is for a jump to 49 from 48.1. Therefore, a better than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI could take away some of the shine from gold, particularly with the precious metal in overbought territory. That said, we expect seasonal factors and renewed geopolitical tensions to keep gold prices underpinned.

GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Aug 2019 – Jan 2020)

Gold Prices Soar as US Airstrike on Iranian Military Leader Sparks Major Escalation in Tensions

Source: IG Charts

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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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