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US Dollar Volatility May Rise Next Year: DXY, EUR, CAD Charts & More

US Dollar Volatility May Rise Next Year: DXY, EUR, CAD Charts & More

2019-12-20 12:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is very near closing the year with its smallest annual range since 1976, an unsustainable feat. The fact that volatility has gotten so compressed means we will almost certainly see at least some type of uptick, which can only benefit traders (assuming you are not short volatility). It might not be a massive explosion in volatility but even if it were a reversion back towards the long-term mean that would be good enough for creating considerably more opportunities than what we saw in 2019.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart (52-wk historical volatility low)

DXY weekly chart

DXY Chart by TradingView

EUR/USD chart below is a stitched together version of what it would have looked like before the Euro even came into existence. Being that it accounts for the majority (~57%) of the DXY index we can see that the Euro of course reflects the same volatility pattern. Notice how long-term volatility ebbs over time, from low to high and back again. The same cycles over and over despite drivers of each one being different.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart (volatility ebbing)

EUR/USD weekly chart

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

USD/CAD is an interesting one, it not only has the lowest level of volatility since 1996, but has done so with sequentially declining volatility over each quarter. This suggests a breakout could begin in the next couple of months.

USD/CAD Weekly Chart (nearing a ‘make or break’ point)

USD/CAD weekly chart

USD/CAD Chart by TradingView

For all the charts we looked at, check out the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.