We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is market volatility and what does a market event volatility look like? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/QpD4VP4vDc
  • The last time the $USDJPY suffered this large of a bearish gap in a bearish slide (this one still nascent), was back in May: https://t.co/hTxfyVFiox
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX! - https://t.co/RgnsklZ2Gl
  • Japanese Yen, US Dollar May Gap Higher as Week Starts on Virus Fears $USDJPY #USD #coronarovirus - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/01/26/Japanese-Yen-US-Dollar-May-Gap-Higher-as-Week-Starts-on-Virus-Fears.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/RwVEF3rrO6
  • Here is my video to prep for the new trading week: "S&P 500 Tumble Threatens Quiet Bull Channel, #Fed and 4Q #GDP Top Event Risk" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/01/25/SP-500-Tumble-Threatens-Quiet-Bull-Channel-Fed-and-4Q-GDP-Top-Event-Risk-.html?ref-author=Kicklighter?CHID=9&QPID=917719
  • RT @AFP: #BREAKING Five rockets hit near US embassy in Iraq capital: security source https://t.co/2Brj01kU3R
  • Everyone develops their trading style differently; however, these are two effective strategies for trading $XAUUSD that every trader ought to be aware of: https://t.co/UHmxPVEiQU https://t.co/XrOawSAdqd
  • Wtf https://t.co/BMTxEKoawu
  • RT @kobebryant: Continuing to move the game forward @KingJames. Much respect my brother 💪🏾 #33644
  • Rest in peace to one of the greatest, can't even believe it
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Test Key Resistance

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Test Key Resistance

2019-12-05 21:00:00
Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
Share:

Australian Dollar Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Test Key Resistance

The Australian Dollar has rallied against some of its “safer” counterparts in the US Dollar and Japanese Yen even as trade war concerns flared early this week. Consequently, risk appetite took a hit, but relatively optimistic remarks from Governor Lowe at Tuesday’s RBA rate decision helped keep AUD/USD and AUD/JPY afloat – despite the broader rotation into the haven currencies. Now, the two pairs are nearing trendlines that have been crucial for the Australian Dollar’s longer-term deterioration.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (October 2018 – December 2019) (Chart 1)

aud/usd price chart

To be sure, defining a clear-cut outlook for the Australian Dollar is difficult at this stage and it may all come down to the efficacy of technical levels and the status of risk trends. Nevertheless, we can highlight the relevant levels in an attempt to outline potential positions depending on your bias. For AUD/USD, the pair’s medium-term outlook is highly contingent on the nearby trendline and 200-day moving average. Resting at the 0.6851 and 0.6883 levels respectively, the two topside barriers will look to rebuke an extension higher and keep the longer-term AUD/USD downtrend intact.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Test Key Resistance

If bulls can breakthrough, the pair may look to extend higher and capitalize on newfound support in the form of prior resistance. That being said, such a shift in direction would likely require a deeper fundamental catalyst, which seems absent at this time. Consequently, the broader AUD/USD weakness may continue in the weeks ahead. IG Client Sentiment Data suggests a similar bias, with traders overwhelmingly net-long AUD/USD – suggesting prices may soon fall. For a deeper look at client sentiment on both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, join my webinar where we will analyze the two pairs using IGCS.

AUD/JPY Forecast

Shifting focus to AUD/JPY, price action reveals a trend like that of AUD/USD. Stuck in a broader decline, AUD/JPY has recently rebounded to test topside resistance around 75.00. Similarly, the 200-day moving average is nearby and will also look to influence price. As the pair runs out of room between the descending trendline from December 2018 and the ascending line from August 2019, a break will have to materialize – likely out of necessity at this point.

AUD/JPY Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (October 2018 – December 2019) (Chart 2)

aud/jpy price chart

Again, turning to IG Client Sentiment Data as the deciding factor, client positioning suggests resistance may rebuke AUD/JPY once again and force a break lower. Should a breakdown occur, initial areas of buoyancy may look to reside around 73.00 before stronger horizontal support at 72.00 can come into play. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis on these pairs and many others.

audjpy price chart

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:DAX 30, CAC 40, FTSE 100 Outlooks Cling to Support as Bears Emerge

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.