EUR/USD Biased Lower as High Importance Data and Events Near
EUR/USD Price, Analysis and Chart:
- EUR/USD nears two-week low ahead of major data run.
- A break below 1.1000 would re-open the May 2017 low.
EUR/USD Eyes a Packed Economic Calendar inc FOMC and US Non-Farm Payrolls
The most commonly traded FX-pair, EUR/USD, is running into a packed economic and event calendar with volatility expected to rise during the rest of the week. The Average True Range (ATR) of the pair has fallen from around 58 pips to around 43 pips over the last month and any data beat, or miss may add volatility into what has been a quiet FX-pair of late. There are important data Eurozone data releases for the rest of the week, while in the US there is the FOMC rate decision (Wednesday), and US non-farm payrolls and ISM numbers on Friday.
The EUR/USD spot price tested and baulked at the 200-day moving average just over a week and has fallen steadily since. The pair are now testing the two-week low around 1.1074, an area of confluence with the 20-dma. A break and close below here will see the 50-dma at 1.1030 under pressure before a big figure break. Below 1.1000, 109.29 and then the multi-month low at 1.0879 come into view.
Further losses below here would need a considerable impulse as political factors may come into play. US President Donald Trump would push back against any further weakness in the Euro, a currency that he feels is being moved lower to make Eurozone exports more affordable.
EURUSD Daily Price Chart (December 2018 – October 29, 2019)
IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 53% net-short EURUSD, a bullish contrarian bias.
Recent daily and weekly positional changes however give us a mixed trading bias.
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