We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
US Dollar Rises on Mixed NFP, Fed Rate Cuts Still Expected

US Dollar Rises on Mixed NFP, Fed Rate Cuts Still Expected

2019-10-04 13:01:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

NFP Analysis and Talking Points

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 136k in September, below expectations of 145k; Prior month revised higher
  • US Average Hourly Earnings fell short of consensus
  • NFP data enough to calm recession fears but still weak enough to keep markets pricing in Fed rate cuts

DATA RECAP

US NFP 136k vs. Exp. 145k (Prev. 130k, Rev. 168k)

Unemployment Rate 3.5% Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%)

Average Earnings M/M 0.0% Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)

Average Earnings Y/Y 2.9% Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%)

NFP Report Review

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment expanded by 136k jobs in September, missing expectations of 145k. Alongside this, the headline figure for the prior month saw an upward revision to 168k from 130k, while the unemployment rate saw a surprise 0.2ppt drop to 3.5%.

Wage Growth Eases

Wage data missed analyst estimates with the monthly reading at 0.0% vs Exp. 0.3%, which pushed the yearly rate down to 2.9% from 3.2%. Overall, in light of the recent soft US data, in particular the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, the NFP report has eased fears of an imminent recession, however, the data is still weak enough to keep markets pricing in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and also highlights that the jobs market is slowing.

Please add a description for the image.

Market Response

While the NFP headline had been lower than expected, markets had been much more pessimistic given the recent US data, thus a relatively small miss on expectations had been enough to prompt a modest lift in the greenback. That said, the data remains weak enough for Fed Fund Futures to price in another rate cut in October. Going forward, the next key input on the US data front will be the retail sales on October 16th.

USD Price Chart: 1-minute time frame (Intra-day)

Please add a description for the image.

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.