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  • Nasdaq now down over 3% today, confirming 10% correction territory. $QQQ
  • $USDCHF has continued to strength today, now above the 0.9280 level, trading around the highs hit in late September. The pair has performed strongly since mid February as US rates have continued higher, rising from 0.8900 by nearly 400 pips to its current levels. $USD $CHF
  • Against the backdrop of rising bond yields, both the Bank of England and European Central Bank will meet over the next two weeks. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Oil - US Crude since Jan 06 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5,008.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Oil - US Crude strength.
  • US Indices are struggling again today. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the record highs of mid February, entering correction territory. The $VIX has risen to its highest level since last week's bond market event. DOW -1.31% NDX -2.37% SPX -1.48% RUT -2.68% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • #Bitcoin battle-lines drawn. . . Updated 240min $BTCUSD
  • Overall, Powell sticks with the current Fed stance and hence the move with the USD and UST yields higher, while gold tests 1700
  • #Gold is hitting fresh nine-month low in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell's speech, falling to currently trade right around $1,700 for the first time since June of 2020. $XAU $GLD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.38%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.84%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • $Silver testing confluent support, trendline + 23.6 fibo $SLV $XAG
Gold Price Outlook Bullish, Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold

Gold Price Outlook Bullish, Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Gold Price Analysis and Talking Points

  • Gold Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Short-Term Pullback
  • Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold Prices

See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

Gold Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Short-Term Pullback

Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which fell in contractionary territory for the first time since 2016 reiterates the concern that a global manufacturing recession is taking place with the US seemingly vulnerable to the negative spillover effects from the global slowdown. Therefore, risks remain tilted to the upside for precious metals as the Federal Reserve look to respond to the current slowdown. Overnight, commentary from the most dovish Fed rate setter, Bullard, had opened the door to a 50bps cut, having stated that such a cut in interest rates would align central bank with market expectations, keep in mind that James Bullard had previously stated that a 50bps reduction would be seen as overdone. As such, with the Fed likely to continue its easing path, there is room for gold prices to edge higher.

In the short term, there is a potential for a modest pullback following reports by SCMP that Hong Kong’s Lam is to withdraw the extradition bill. Consequently, this has spurred a risk on rally with the Hong Kong surging over 4% on the news, thus gold prices are edging lower.

GOLD PRICE CHART: Weekly Time-Frame (Feb 2011 - Aug 2019)

Gold Price Outlook Bullish, Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold

Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold Prices

Silver prices surged through $19/oz after posting its strongest daily gain (+4.2%) since July 2016, hitting a peak of $19.56. Consequently, as we had previously signaled, silver has outperformed gold with the ratio dropping to 80 from the near 30 year peak of 92.70. That said, with the GSR 30-year average at 67.50, there is room for further outperformance of silver over gold.

Gold Price Outlook Bullish, Silver Prices Erupt, Further Room to Outperform Gold


--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.