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Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

2019-08-27 08:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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Gold (XAU) Price, Silver (XAG) Price Analysis and Chart

  • US-China trade war continues – Is Europe next for US President Trump?
  • Gold and Silver likely to push higher after consolidating.

Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Gold Price Rallies on Trade War Flare Up

The price of gold hit a fresh six-year high as the US-China trade relations took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with both sides upping tariffs on imports. In releases over the weekend, US President Trump said that China officials had been in touch with him and want to make a trade deal, although this was later denied by one of the newspapers/channels that China use for ‘unofficial’ releases. Gold hit a fresh high of $15,552/oz. before fading back but a re-test of this high is likely. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting by at least 25 basis points and continue cutting through the rest of the year. Lower USD interest rates are beneficial for the price of gold.

Gold Price Rally Primed For a Fed Boost, Silver Price Struggling

Ahead this week, US Q2 GDP will be closely watched for any signs of weakness in the economy, while President Trump will also look at the advance goods trade balance for vindication of his use of trade tariffs.

Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

The price of gold is likely to consolidate over the next few days but having broken the $1.552/oz. high is set to move even higher. Ahead, the weekly chart suggests horizontal resistance around $1,620/oz. from back in February 2013, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2011 ($1,921/0z.) to December 2015 ($1,047/oz.) move cuts in at $1,587.5/oz.

Gold Price Weekly Chart (May 2012 - August 27, 2019)

Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

IG Client Sentiment data show that 64.7% of retail traders are net-long of gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Silver Looks Underpinned and Primed for $18.66/oz+

Silver continues to rally alongside gold and the latest push higher took it back to levels last seen just under two years ago. The weekly chart continues to see old lower highs broken and new higher lows made, with two horizontal resistance levels at $18.22/oz. and $18.66/oz. the next upside targets. A break and close above the latter level would leave the July 2016 high at $21.14/oz. the next, longer-term target. The market remains in overbought territory and a period of consolidation is needed before the next move.

The gold/silver ratio is marginally lower at 86.50.

Silver Weekly Price Chart (December 2016 – August 27, 2019)

Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

How to Trade Silver: Top Trading Strategies

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold and Silver – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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