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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USDCAD Eyes GDP Data and FOMC Decision

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USDCAD Eyes GDP Data and FOMC Decision

2019-07-31 11:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Prices, Charts and Analysis:

  • Canadian growth is expected to slow in May to just 0.1% (m/m)
  • USDCAD buffeted by Canadian data and Fed rate decision.

Q3 2019 Currency Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Canadian GDP/US FOMC Will Drive the Next Move in USDCAD

Market expectations are for Canadian GDP to slow markedly in May, to just 0.1% from a prior month’s print of 0.3%, dragging annual growth down to 1.3% from 1.5% Data released at 12.30 GMT). Ongoing global trade tensions are weighing on the economy with the Bank of Canada (BoC) highlighting recently that trade conflicts, “between the United States and China, in particular, are curbing manufacturing activity and business investment and pushing down commodity prices”. After hiking rates interest rates by 0,25% three times last year, the BoC will carefully monitor today’s release to see if their monetary policy remains appropriate as global headwinds continue.

USDCAD traders will also be closely monitoring the latest FOMC rate decision later in the session where the Federal Reserve are fully expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%. USDCAD has recouped some of its recent losses after having printed a 10-month low around 1.3016 on July 18. If Canadian GDP beats expectations and the US cut rates, USDCAD may look to re-test the recent low as the interest rate differential between the two currencies narrows further.

FOMC Rate Decision Live Webinar From 17.45 GMT

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USDCAD Price – Risk of a Possible Reversal

USDCAD Daily Price Chart (January – July 31, 2019)

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USDCAD Eyes GDP Data and FOMC Decision

Retail traders are 38.9% net-long USDCAD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger USDCAD bullish contrarian trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on USDCAD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.