News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/26/SP-500-Break-Risk-and-Dollar-Charge-Sees-Accelerants-Next-Week.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/PL3KZhn1HV
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/QJp3jpS3Ui
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/ukvZfr6BXf
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows https://t.co/bBYcLrtXhj
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/yy0FTn9Pnp
  • Anti-fiat #gold prices suffered the worst week since August as the US Dollar gained ground. Will losses extend? All eyes turn to fiscal stimulus hopes and non-farm payrolls data. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/054CJvOWw4 https://t.co/BzODShHmqH
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/me8wMRpJjE
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/quU4MmUjxA https://t.co/jF6ubwRz1P
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/PfIVibmqn1
Gulf Tensions Escalate, Natural Gas to Follow Oil Prices

Gulf Tensions Escalate, Natural Gas to Follow Oil Prices

2019-07-22 09:30:00
Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Oil prices jump higher as tensions in the Gulf continue to escalate
  • Natural Gas prices will mirror oil prices due to their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices jumped higher on Friday after it was reported that Iran had seized a British vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions continued to escalate in the Gulf. Brent Crude jumped 2.5% on Friday afternoon to $63.21/bbl. heading higher into the weekend before opening higher still on Monday morning at $63.47/bbl.

PRICE CHART: BRENT CRUDE 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (July 19 – July 22)

Gulf Tensions Escalate, Natural Gas to Follow Oil Prices

Global economies may be pushed into recession if oil prices surge, which would in turn intensify the shift away from fossil fuels. Countries which are heavily reliant on the region’s crude will see an increase in their current account balances as their imports of oil will become more expensive, India will be heavily impacted as a large percentage of its oil imports come from the Gulf. If tensions escalate into armed conflict, we could see oil prices surge back to 2014 levels where a barrel was priced close to $100.

Any increase in the prices of oil is likely to be replicate by natural gas as a greater proportion of shipments of the liquified product pass via the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas spot prices opened 2.5% higher on Monday in reaction to the recent developments.

PRICE CHART: NATURAL GAS HOURLY-TIME FRAME (July 18 – July 22)

Gulf Tensions Escalate, Natural Gas to Follow Oil Prices

How Tensions Unfolded

Tensions started on July 4 when an Iranian oil tanker was detained by British forces on the coast of Gibraltar after it was believed that the vessel and its 2.1 million barrels of oil were heading to Syria, in breach of EU sanctions. The Iranian tanker continues to be detained as UK officials, backed by the US, determines whether the shipment of oil was heading for Syria. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, refuses to say where the tanker was heading, as he fears the US will try and place a ban on all Iranian exports, although he denies it was heading for Syria or any other country under the EU ban.

British officials argued that the seizure of the Iranian vessel is only because of its intended destination and not because it is carrying Iranian oil. The UK says it was upholding the EU’s ban on Bashar al Assad’s regime, and UK officials knew there would be retaliation if the tanker and its cargo was not released.

And on Friday July 19 it was reported that a British oil tanker was detained in the Gulf because of failing to observe international maritime regulations. Iranian officials said the vessel met a small fishing boat after which they tried to contact the crew onboard a few times without success. The Revolutionary Guard then approached the vessel and found that it was in violation of various maritime regulations, one of them being that their tracking and GPS devices had been turned off. Another vessel, bearing the Liberian flag, was also detained but later released. To escalate tensions further, it was reported that the US had shot down an Iranian drone after it was performing surveillance duties over the Golf, but the Iran denied the drone was taken down and it confirmed it had returned safely to base. It comes after the US and Iran accused each other of not behaving in good faith.

Theresa May is due to chair an emergency meeting on Monday morning to try and resolve the conflict as swiftly as possible.

Recommended Reading

Eurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst

To contact Daniela, email her at Daniela.Sabin@ig.com

Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES