EURUSD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS
- Although expected EURUSD price action has fallen slightly with GDP data in the rearview mirror, overnight implied volatility remains elevated with Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payrolls slated for release tomorrow
- Spot EURUSD trades back below the 1.12 handle following a relatively hawkish Fed yesterday, but upcoming data could help the Euro rebound back above this technical level or reinforce the dollar’s dominance
- Take a look at this article for information on the How to Trade the Top 10 Most Volatile Currency Pairs or download the free DailyFX 2Q USD Forecast for comprehensive fundamental and technical insight on the US Dollar over the second quarter
EURUSD overnight implied volatility appears relatively high at 6.17 percent ahead of Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payroll data due for release tomorrow. This compares to the average of 4.93 percent during April and 5.69 percent year-to-date.
FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND TRADING RANGES
Spot EURUSD trades below the 1.12 handle once again after the latest Fed meeting revealed a less-dovish tilt which casted a shadow over bullish prospects for this currency pair. With GDP data, FOMC and Powell presser risk now in the rearview mirror, forex traders will likely turn to high-impact economic indicators expected during Friday’s session to reassess positioning biases.
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – EURUSD
Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.
Eurozone year-over-year core CPI for April is forecasted to cross the wires at 1.0 percent. If this inflation measure undershoots estimates, EURUSD could slide further seeing that a soft number would likely underpin the ECB’s easing bias. On the other hand, a better than expected reading could help the Euro recover from its recent downside.
As for the greenback, another robust US jobs report has potential of reigniting the long-prevailing EURUSD downtrend. Conversely, a materially worse-than-expected number could jeopardize the dollar’s recent advance.
Other economic indicators worth watching out of the US included the change in unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the ISM Services Index.
EURUSD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (MARCH 20, 2019 TO MAY 02, 2019)
Judging by EURUSD overnight implied volatility, forex traders might expect the currency pair to trade between 1.1145 and 1.1217 with a 68 percent statistical probability. However, bearish technical indicators could pose headwinds to EURUSD upside.
For example, support-turned-resistance at the 1.12 handle and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the high and low recorded on March 20 and April 26 respectively might hinder spot prices from advancing.
EURUSD TRADER SENTIMENT PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 05, 2018 TO MAY 02, 2019)
According to client positioning data from IG, 54.9 percent of EURUSD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1. While the number of traders net long is 3.5 percent higher than yesterday and 19.5 percent lower than last week, the number of traders net-short is 6.7 percent higher than yesterday and 45.4 percent higher than last week.
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- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX
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