We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • President Trump: - Expecting to make deal with EU on auto tariffs - BBG
  • If you missed my webinar on market sentiment today, here's where to find a recording of it: https://t.co/Shu3MWWPBc
  • Australian #Dollar Price Outlook: #Aussie Bears Testing $AUDUSD Support - https://t.co/iIJM5uwU7G https://t.co/KvKepbqnk1
  • US 3-Month Bills Draw 1.530% Primary Dealers Awarded: 46.6% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 41.7% Direct Bidders Accepted: 11.8% B/C Ratio: 3.00 $TNX
  • US 6-Month Bills Draw 1.520% Primary Dealers Awarded: 44.1% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 44.7% Direct Bidders Accepted: 11.2% B/C Ratio: 3.20 $TNX
  • Keeping an eye on the $DAX this week as it probes various levels of resistance that could open the door higher if surmounted https://t.co/0O3Z195gbG
  • $1.8 billion in Treasury coupons purchased by New York Fed for reinvestment $TNX $DXY
  • Trader confidence has been hit by the coronavirus outbreak in China but the impact is unlikely to last long. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/7PmfW2WZWg https://t.co/13XUuF5o00
  • If you haven't already, I highly suggest taking this short 14-question quiz called DNA FX and it tells you what type of trader you most likely are. My results were position trader. What type of trader are you? https://www.dailyfx.com/research/dna-fx/quiz https://t.co/Znxh8c19gm
  • #Gold has made a series of higher lows over the last week off the January 14 low of $1,536/oz. and earlier broke above the recent $1,563.5/oz. Get your $gld market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/JcKfezIOPu https://t.co/dMuuFOGpG8
Will US GDP Stoke Currency Volatility Across USD Forex Pairs Tomorrow?

Will US GDP Stoke Currency Volatility Across USD Forex Pairs Tomorrow?

2019-04-25 20:05:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

USD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS:

  • Overnight implied volatility metrics for major USD currency pairs leaps ahead of Friday’s US GDP data release which may potentially stoke a sizable market reaction
  • The DXY US Dollar Index recently surged above technical resistance to its highest level since May 2017 and could suggest USD traders are expecting tomorrow’s GDP numbers to beat estimates
  • Take a look at this article for information on How to Trade the Top 10 Most Volatile Currency Pairs or download the free DailyFX Q2 USD Forecastfor comprehensive fundamental and technical insight on the US Dollar over the second quarter

Forex traders are starting to see signs that currency volatility could be ticking higher, led by the latest surge in the US Dollar. In fact, recent USD gains has pushed the DXY US Dollar Index above key resistance at the 98.00 price level which is its highest reading in nearly 2 years.

DXY US DOLLAR INDEX 1-MONTH IMPLIED VOLATILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 24, 2018 TO APRIL 25, 2019)

DXY US Dollar Index Price Chart Implied 30-Day Volatility

Prior to the greenback’s latest advance, forex market volatility was seemingly evaporating. But, price action looks to be picking up again judging by rising implied volatility which interestingly aligns with tomorrow’s potentially market-moving economic data.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied Volatility and Trading Ranges USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD, NZDCurrency Market Implied Volatility EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD

Performance in the major USD crosses tomorrow will largely depend on how closely actual Q1 US GDP is reported to consensus. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 45 percent probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by its December 11 FOMC meeting.

If economic growth comes in above the 2.2 percent estimate, the odds that the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rate will likely drop which usually lifts the US Dollar. On the other hand, if GDP crosses the wires below forecast, markets could begin pricing in a higher likelihood that the Fed cuts rates this year.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – USD

Forex Economic Calendar US Dollar Price Chart

Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

Currency pairs of interest highlights EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD. Greenback gains could be limited against the Euro if GDP surprises to the upside considering recent EURUSD price action. On the other hand, there could be more room for the USD to run against the Aussie considering weak inflation out of Australia likely sets up the RBA for a rate cut.

Also, a US GDP beat would likely enhance risk appetite and send traders flocking out of anti-risk currencies like the Japanese Yen, especially given the BOJ’s reiterated dovishness. That being said, JPY could see a boost from US GDP coming in below estimates, particularly if the report is bleak enough to reignite market pessimism and flight to ‘safe-haven’ securities.

TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.