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EURUSD Price Outlook Steered by US Dollar Sentiment and Data

EURUSD Price Outlook Steered by US Dollar Sentiment and Data

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • EURUSD bulls and bears battle around 1.12 handle.
  • Weak German Ifo is the last EU data release this week.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

EURUSD remains under pressure from an ongoing combination of weak Euro-Zone data releases and US dollar strength. The pair slipped below 1.1200 yesterday and trade either side of this level currently. The latest German Ifo release missed expectations, sparking a small sell-off, but buyers seem to be picking-up offers around 1.1200 for the time being. The Ifo release was the last Euro-Zone data of the week, leaving short-term EURUSD direction in the hands of the US dollar.

The current US dollar strength may come under pressure from two upcoming releases. On Thursday the first look at US durable goods orders with expectations for a pick-up in March to 0.8% from a prior -1.6%, while on Friday the first look at US Q1 GDP is released at 12:30 GMT with expectations of 2.2% annualized q/q growth. Any miss would push the US dollar lower from its current lofty levels.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

The EURUSD chart remains bearish over the medium-term but may find some support around current levels/recent lows. The area between 1.1176 and 1.1187 is important as a break below would expose lows not seen since late-July 2017. Below here, 1.1022 comes into play. To the upside, 1.1300 ahead of 1.1325.The CCI indicator shows the market touching oversold conditions.

Euro Fundamental Outlook: EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (April 2018 – April 24, 2019)

Retail traders are 65.4% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.