News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here: https://t.co/SIpslvhX0J https://t.co/jVxcE1QUBs
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here: https://t.co/MTc4tUDD6c https://t.co/DOQ6tyzep9
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/WQLZ1X7gIY
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level https://t.co/LkEyRxFhnq
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
Currency Volatility: RBA Could Jolt AUDUSD Price Action

Currency Volatility: RBA Could Jolt AUDUSD Price Action

2019-04-01 22:45:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

  • AUDUSD overnight implied volatility skyrockets to 10.7 percent in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate review expected Tuesday at 3:00 GMT
  • Although markets are largely expecting the RBA to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50 percent, Governor Philip Lowe could provide supplemental information on the central bank’s latest view on monetary policy and economic outlook
  • New to Forex? Check out this free Forex for Beginners educational trading guide

Forex option traders have bid up implied volatility on overnight AUDUSD contracts ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision slated for Tuesday at 3:00 GMT. While the central bank is widely expected to stay on the sidelines and leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent, follow-up commentary from Governor Lowe looks to provide AUD traders with additional insight on the RBA’s next move.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied Volatility Trading Ranges EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSDCurrency market implied volatility USD, AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD, JPY

The accompanying monetary policy decision statement will likely highlight the latest developments in Australia’s labor and housing markets which largely contribute to the central bank’s relative dovish or hawkish tilt. Despite the Australian unemployment rate recently dropping to 4.9 percent, its lowest reading since June 2011, the RBA could still refrain from taking a less-dovish stance in consideration of neighboring New Zealand whose central bank hinted at cutting the country's policy interest rate last week.

AUDUSD CURRENCY PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (MARCH 05, 2019 TO APRIL 01, 2019)

AUDUSD Currency Price Chart Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision April 1, 2019

AUDUSD spot prices have recently traded between the 23.6 percent and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement lines drawn from March’s low and high. Although, the currency pair appears to have coiled between short-term trendlines which could position AUDUSD for a material break above downtrend resistance or below uptrend support. According to overnight implied volatility measures, however, currency market participants could expect AUDUSD to trade between 0.7076 and 0.7156.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – AUDUSD

Australian Dollar US Dollar economic data releases upcoming

Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

In addition to the RBA’s rate review, a handful of economic data out of Australia and the US could exacerbate AUDUSD price volatility. The latest reading on US Durable Goods Orders could move the market’s needle if actual data crosses the wires materially above or below consensus. Also, AiG’s Performance of Services Index has potential to send AUDUSD gyrating later in Tuesday’s session depending on the reading.

AUDUSD CLIENT SENTIMENT

AUDUSD Currency Price Chart Client Sentiment Trader Positioning

Check out IG’s Client Sentiment here for more detail on the bullish and bearish biases of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Bitcoin and S&P500.

According to IG’s client positioning data, 61.3 percent of AUDUSD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.59 to 1. Moreover, traders have grown increasing bullish AUDUSD as the number of traders net-long is 11.4 percent higher than Friday and 26.9 percent higher compared to last week. However, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment which suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES