Canadian Q3 GDP and Canadian Dollar (CAD)
- Third-quarter growth should stay around 2%.
- Canadian dollar may get a boost after oil slump stalls.
We have just released our New Q4 Trading Forecasts including CAD and EUR.
Canadian Dollar Needs a Boost After Oil Slump Weighs on the Loonie
The latest set of Canadian GDP releases are out at 13:30 GMT and may provide a stabilizer for the currency after a tough few weeks. The Q3 annualized rate is expected to drop from 2.9% to 2.0% after the second-quarter figure was boosted by energy exports and personal consumption. A print at or above 2% would help to underpin expectations of higher Canadian rates in 2019 with the market currently showing a 0.25% hike in January priced-in.
The Canadian dollar has been under selling pressure in the past few weeks due to the slumping price of oil. Ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting, and helped by supportive commentary from Russia, oil has stabilized at these lower levels and may push back, especially if the ongoing US-China trade spat calms. The December 6 OPEC meeting is the likely date when production cuts, if any, are announced.
The latest EURCAD chart now shows the pair touching the downtrend started in late-June around 1.5140 with further upside running into resistance at the 200-day moving average at 1.5186. On the downside, support starts at 1.5014 ahead of 1.4986 – 20- and 5-day moving averages – before the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4908.
EURCAD Daily Price Chart (October 2017 – November 30, 2018)
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