We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
How Does a Leadership Challenge to a UK Prime Minister Work?

How Does a Leadership Challenge to a UK Prime Minister Work?

2018-11-16 12:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

GBPUSD Analysis and Talking Points:

  • GBP Could Sink to 2018 Lows on Leadership Challenge
  • UK Brexit Minister Raab Resigns over PM May’s Plans

See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

Brexit Minister Raab Resigns, No Confidene Vote Looks Imminent

As Brexit discussions enter its most difficult phase yet, PM May once again finds herself under intense scrutiny at the top of a fractured government that is unable to unite over her plans to leave the European Union. As key ministers resign from the government, most notably UK Brexit Minister Raab, there is increased talk that a leadership challenge for Theresa May is imminent.

As such, the increased likelihood of a no-confidence vote in PM May has kept the Pound on the backfoot and could continue to do so with a move towards the 2018 lows (1.2660) possible, in the event that a vote is carried out. As it stands, odds from UK betting names imply that there is a 50% chance of a no-confidence vote before the year-end.

What needs to happen for there to be a leadership contest?

For a leadership challenge to be triggered, 15% (48 MPs) of MPs in PM May’s party would need to write a letter to the Chairman of the party’s, Sir Graham Brady, which is called the 1922 committee.Once the threshold is reached, the chairman will announce the start of the contest and invite nominations. Recent UK press reports suggest that roughly 40 letters have already been sent privately.

What will happen during a no confidence vote?

If a no confidence vote is called, all serving Conservative MPs will be able to cast a vote for/against PM May. For Theresa May to be ousted, a simple majority of 159MPs would be needed, whereby May would also be barred from standing in the leadership contest that follows. A victory for PM May in a confidence vote would allow her to remain in office, however, there could be an increased risk that Theresa May decides to step down if there were a significant number of no-confidence votes in light of her weakened position.

In the event that Theresa May is ousted, a Tory leadership race would take place with MPs given the power to shortlist the final two candidates.

Most likely Next Conservative Leader, according to UK bookmakers

  • Sajid Javid (5/1)
  • Boris Johnson (6/1)
  • Jeremy Hunt (7/1)

How quickly can a no confidence vote take place?

In the last no confidence vote against a sitting Conservative leader in 2003, the chairman of the 1922 committee announced he had received enough letters to trigger a vote with the vote held the next day.

Impact on GBP from a Leadership Challenge

Growing concerns that Tory rebels could topple Theresa May saw GBPUSD shed as much as 0.9% on October 22nd, hitting lows of 1.2957. A leadership challenge taking place could see GBPUSD move back to its 2018 lows (1.2660) amid the increased domestic political uncertainty, while also providing upside risks for EURGBP towards 0.90.

BREXIT RELATED ANALYSIS

GBP TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.