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US AM Digest: Euro Rebounds as Draghi Downplays Recent Soft Data

US AM Digest: Euro Rebounds as Draghi Downplays Recent Soft Data

Justin McQueen, Analyst

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US Market Snapshot via IG: DJIA +0.3%, NASDAQ 100 +1.4%, S&P 500 0.5%

EUR: ECB kept its main rates on hold as expected, while the comments alongside the decision had been left unchanged. As such, a minimal reaction had been seen in the Euro. EURUSD reclaimed the 1.22 handle after Draghi noted that slight moderation in economic data may reflect temporary factors, while the ECB still sees solid growth. EURUSD briefly made fresh 2018 lows at 1.2143, however this was somewhat short-lived given Draghi’s upbeat assessment that growth remains on track despite recent soft data.

USD: The US Dollar has been on the backfoot today amid the pullback in US yields with the 10yr dipping back below 3%, subsequently providing a much-needed lift for its major counterparts. Much of the USD selling has been seen through GBPUSD which made a mild test of the 1.40 handle, ahead of tomorrow’s GDP report.

SEK: The Swedish Krona is the notable laggard today following the Riksbank rate decision in which the central bank pushed back its rate hike path trajectory by noting that a rate rise is seen at the end of the year as opposed to H2 18 previously. The Riksbank also downgraded its growth forecast while upgrading their inflation forecast with the latter seen as a by-product of the recent rise in oil prices, alongside the significant decline in the SEK.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, April 26, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: Euro Rebounds as Draghi Downplays Recent Soft Data

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, April 26, 2018

US AM Digest: Euro Rebounds as Draghi Downplays Recent Soft Data

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

US AM Digest: Euro Rebounds as Draghi Downplays Recent Soft Data

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 52.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.08 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 11.0% higher than yesterday and 56.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 15.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. Euro Dips as ECB Holds Rates, Makes No Changes to Policy Statement” by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist
  2. US Crude Oil Price Well-Placed for Further Gains” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. Ether (ETH) Struggles After Sell-Off, Cryptomarket Slumps by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  4. Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Bulls Must Retake Late Feb Peak” by David Cottle, Market Analyst
  5. Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance” Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist.

The DailyFX US AM Digest is published every day before the US cash equity open - you can SIGNUP HERE to receive this report in your inbox every day.

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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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