We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • White House Economic Advisor Hassett says some workers going back to their jobs is building confidence $DXY $SPX
  • Gold Price Outlook: XAU Overbought as Cycles Drive the Bullish Trend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/05/28/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Overbought-as-Cycles-Drive-the-Bullish-JS-Trend.html $Gold https://t.co/ntbvPQTHF9
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.34% Gold: 0.26% Oil - US Crude: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/yvJX18QY14
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.91%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 74.73%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/l7878VS4m7
  • As long as this moves forward, the verbal (Twitter) threats of action between the US and China will garner less and less actual market movement https://t.co/pvGOJuAG4N
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.99% Wall Street: 0.76% FTSE 100: 0.08% France 40: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/f3oAYUPoEj
  • White House Advisor Kudlow says phase-one deal with China is still planned to move forward $FXI $SPX
  • White House Advisor Kudlow says "big mistake" for China going into Hong Kong - BBG
  • The S&P 500 is approaching secondary breakout targets up here and the rally may be vulnerable heading into uptrend resistance. Get your S&P500 technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/21a20ql6RH https://t.co/elk1mcR4UM
  • U.S. House passes bill expanding the PPP loan program rules $SPX
Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

2018-04-26 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

TALKING POINTS – ECB, EURO, AUSSIE & NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS

  • Euro may fall as the ECB casts doubt on near-term QE tapering
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars may rise as dovish Draghi lifts risk appetite
  • US Dollar correcting from six week high in Asia Pacific session

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European trading hours. No formal changes to the central bank’s posture are expected but traders will probably put considerable weight on the tone of remarks made by President Mario Draghi at the subsequent press conference. A dovish lean might weigh on the Euro but could offer a lift to broad-based risk appetite.

Mr Draghi and his colleagues have signaled they are well aware of incoming disinflationary pressure from base effects arising the single currency’s explosive gains last year. That may be difficult to overcome by an economy where growth seems to have slowed sharply in the first quarter, according to leading PMI surveys. This might prompt signaling that an extension of QE remains on the table.

The current program making €30 billion in asset purchases per month expires in September. An abrupt end seems broadly understood as ill-advised, so traders have been waiting for the ECB to unveil whether it will “taper” uptake into the current end-date, announce a plan to begin doing so thereafter, or prolong the effort. Setting the stage for a June decision alongside a forecast update may well happen today.

Comments that explicitly cast doubt on whether the ECB favors tapering versus prolonging QE bode ill for the Euro. So too does vague rhetoric hinting that uncertain officials fear tightening prematurely. The prospect of a longer-lasting ECB liquidity backstop may boost risk appetite however, boosting the sentiment-geared Aussie and New Zealand Dollars.

The US Dollar corrected lower in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade, retracing some of its steps after soaring to a six-week high. Swelling Fed rate hike speculation still seems to be the driving catalyst, with the spread between the 10-and 2-year Treasury bond yield telling widening to the biggest in a month. Meanwhile, the tightening path through 2019 priced into Fed Funds futures steepened.

See our quarterly FX market forecasts to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.