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GBPNZD - Consolidating After Major Channel Breakout

GBPNZD - Consolidating After Major Channel Breakout

Talking Points:

  • GBPNZD consolidating outside of multi-month channel
  • Consolidation working its way towards a triangle formation
  • ~21050 is major monthly resistance over past 3+ years

Over a week ago, I pointed out a symmetrical price & time relationship in GBPNZD which suggested a pullback was in order, however, instead of a material pullback we are now seeing a constructive pullback/consolidation. Upon zooming in on the 4-hr timeframe we can see the consolidation quickly taking the shape of a symmetrical triangle. This is taking place after a significant breakout of a multi-month channel, so considerable upside could come from this should a key monthly level get cleared...

On a breakout above the top-side trend-line of the triangle I will be looking for 21054 (September 2014 high). This price level, to the exact pip, was also the high in 2012 and 21045 was yearly high in 2011. Should GBPNZD break out of the triangle and hold above 21054, my big picture bias for a major rally this year will be strengthened considerably. For now, though, the focus is on seeing whether or not we can maintain this bullish posture and rise out of a short-term pattern towards critical long-term levels.

GBPNZD Daily/4-hr: Sep ’14 – Present

--- Written by Paul Robinson, DailyFX Research

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.