News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/EvRHfRQLgk
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable in the week ahead, eyeing risks such as a dovish RBA, surging Covid cases and recent crackdowns by Beijing. Might US NFPs offer some relief to AUD/USD? Get your weekly AUD forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LQzQymM3ND https://t.co/XOCJl3vbu1
  • $AUDNZD closed at its lowest since December 2020 Prices pierced the 1.0541 - 1.0564 support zone, exposing the November low at 1.0418 A confirmatory downside close under support next week may open the door to further losses #AUD #RBA https://t.co/mybbgPHNX4
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/k49UosZOUR
  • The US Dollar seems to be losing its momentum against ASEAN currencies as of late. Could this be another top in USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/rVBKBuhhAb https://t.co/lTT6oelIEc
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/JTw3w7KYXP
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.39% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.56% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/a8XYJHybtN
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.05% Oil - US Crude: -0.25% Gold: -0.77% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/C66zBofenc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 71.64%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6QmJTzlrho
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/1mnOXUuBpt https://t.co/8PhqKCpyzf
Oil Price Recovery Unfazed by Unexpected Rise in US Crude Inventories

Oil Price Recovery Unfazed by Unexpected Rise in US Crude Inventories

David Song, Strategist

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil snaps the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week as it extends the rebound from the monthly low ($66.44), and crude may stage a larger recovery over the remainder of the week as it appears to be unfazed by an unexpected uptick in US inventories.

Advertisement

Oil Price Recovery Unfazed by Unexpected Rise in US Crude Inventories

The price of oil attempts to retrace the sharp decline following the agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production“by 0.4 mb/d on a monthly basis starting August 2021, with crude trading back above the 50-Day SMA ($69.89) as it climbs to a fresh weekly high ($70.15).

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for US

The limited reaction to the 2.108M rise in US inventories raises the scope for higher oil prices as it comes after nine straight weeks of falling stockpiles, and the data may do little to sway OPEC and its allies as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) emphasizes that “world oil demand growth in 2021 is forecast at 6.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment.”

In turn, the rise in US inventories may prove to be temporary as consumption is expected to pick up throughout the second half of the year, and forecasts for stronger demand may keep OPEC and its allies on a preset course as the recent recovery in US output seems to be stalling.

Image of EIA Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil

A deeper look at the figures coming out of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly field production holding steady at 11,400K for the second week, and the tepid recovery in US production may help to keep the price of oil afloat ahead of the next OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on September 1 as the group pledges to “to assess market conditions and decide on production level adjustments for the following month, endeavoring to end production adjustments by the end of September 2022.”

With that said, recent price action raises the scope for higher oil prices as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week to trade back above the 50-Day SMA ($69.89).

Oil Price Daily Chart

Image of Oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, crude broke out of the range bound price action from the third quarter of 2020 as it established an upward trending channel, with the price of oil taking out the 2019 high ($66.60) as both the 50-Day SMA ($69.89) and 200-Day SMA ($56.93)established a positive slope.
  • The price of oil may continue to exhibit a bullish trend as the recent rally removes the threat of a double-top formation, but crude appears to have reversed course after taking out the 2018 high ($76.90), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as it established a downward trend after flashing a textbook sell signal earlier this month.
  • However, the price of oil snaps the series of lower highs and low from the previous week following the failed attempt to close below the $65.40 (23.6% expansion) region, with a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around $70.40 (38.2% expansion) to $71.50 (38.2% expansion) opening up the $74.40 (50% expansion) region.
  • However, lack of momentum to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around $70.40 (38.2% expansion) to $71.50 (38.2% expansion) may keep the price of oil within a defined range as long as the RSI tracks the downward trend established earlier this month.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES