News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Despite the IMF's update to 2021 growth forecasts and strong earnings after hours, risk trends are pacing like markets are worried. Traders are likely awaiting the Fed, and that has me look at $EURUSD and $USDCAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/07/28/EURUSD-and-USDCAD-Reversals-More-Suitable-to-Conditions-but-Beholden-to-Fed.html https://t.co/ywxD4wRAYX
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.08%) S&P 500 (-0.01%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.06%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/iMvJr5f8xn
  • The British Pound could remain vulnerable against the US Dollar while perhaps looking to push higher against the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vvbsYTp4Cx https://t.co/o8Z9bsE0W1
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.43% Gold: 0.23% Silver: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/dRHbp3p0Ii
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/dANsuTmXWb
  • https://t.co/e7ibDiB1oK
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Outlook: $AUDUSD Snubs Hot Q2 CPI as Sydney Lockdown Extends Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/28/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Snubs-Hot-Q2-CPI-as-Sydney-Lockdown-Extends.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.10%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GKwSgVlfTy
  • $AUDUSD little changed on an overall mixed Q2 Australian CPI report Headline rates were slightly better-than-expected - 3.8% y/y vs 0.8% seen - 0.8% q/q vs 0.7% seen But, the RBA preferred trimmed mean gauges were as expected - 1.6% y/y - 0.5% q/q Eyes on #Fed next! https://t.co/qIXNi1aURz
Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC JMMC Meeting

Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC JMMC Meeting

David Song, Strategist

Oil Price Talking Points

The rally in the price of oil seems to be sputtering as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory, and crude may consolidate over the remainder of the month as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) appear to be on track to gradually restore production throughout the rest of the year.

Advertisement

Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC JMMC Meeting

The price of oil pulls back from a fresh yearly high ($74.25) even as US inventories narrow for the fifth consecutive week, and crude may face headwinds ahead of the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on July 1 as the group sticks to the production adjustment table.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for US

Nevertheless, fresh data prints coming out of the US may encourage OPEC+ to unveil an updated production schedule as stockpiles contract 7.614M in the week ending June 18 after falling 7.355M the week prior, and the group may continue to boost supply over the coming months as US output slows for the first time since late May.

Image of EIA Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil

A deeper look at the figures coming out of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly field production slipping to 11,100K from 11,200K in the week ending June 11, and the tepid recovery in US output may prop up the price of oil as it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

With that said, the price of oil may continue to exhibit the bullish trend from earlier this year as the recovery in global demand is met with limited supply, but crude may face a larger pullback ahead of the OPEC+ meeting as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory to indicate a textbook sell signal.

Oil Price Daily Chart

Image of Oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, crude broke out of the range bound price action from the third quarter of 2020 as it established an upward trending channel, with the price of oil taking out the 2019 high ($66.60) as both the 50-Day SMA ($66.65) and 200-Day SMA ($53.93)established a positive slope.
  • The price of oil may continue to exhibit a bullish trend as the recent rally removes the threat of a double-top formation, but the rally appears to have stalled ahead of the 2018 high ($76.90) as it pulls back from a fresh yearly high ($74.25).
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as it falls back from overbought territory and slips below 70 to indicate a textbook sell signal.
  • Lack of momentum to break/close above the $74.40 (50% expansion) region may pull the price of oil back towards the Fibonacci overlap around $70.40 (38.2% expansion) to $71.50 (38.2% expansion), with a move below the 50-Day SMA ($66.65) bringing the $65.40 (23.6% expansion) area on the radar.
  • Need a break/close above $74.40 (50% expansion) to open up the $76.90 (50% retracement) region, which coincides with the 2018 high ($76.90), with the next area of interest coming in around $78.50 (61.8% expansion) to $78.80 (50% retracement).

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES