News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/09/26/Gold-Price-Outlook-Rising-US-Dollar-Sinks-XAUUSD-Will-Losses-Extend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gPhy0KoW3W
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDnpPbn https://t.co/Xtk5g4JQEB
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/SsUguHB39W
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/aD1ZWhTWZp
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/719LgjFmYG https://t.co/SSoqjONUzA
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/HJpngnerzY https://t.co/g6X8ABQDwY
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:https://t.co/ed4QR7QQOn https://t.co/gDWYNtm2UY
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/Q7TcbrYXjl
  • #Gold prices have plunged nearly 11% off the record highs with a breakout risking further losses. Here are technical trade levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your #metals update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/yxymjCHti6
Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Sequence Snaps Ahead of 2019-Low

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Sequence Snaps Ahead of 2019-Low

2019-04-01 17:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Gold Price Talking Points

Gold attempts to retrace the sharp decline from the previous week as U.S. President Donald Trump tweets that the Federal Reserve has ‘mistakenly raised interest rates,’ and the price for bullion may stage a larger rebound over the coming days as it snaps the recent series of lower highs & lows.

Image of president donald trump tweet

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Sequence Snaps Ahead of 2019-Low

The broader outlook for gold remains constructive as the pullback from the February-high ($1347) fails to produce a test of the 2019-low ($1277), and the lack of momentum to break the yearly opening range may keep the precious metal afloat as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces accusations of a policy error.

It remains to be seen if the FOMC will continue to change its tune over the coming months as the inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve warns of a looming recession, but it seems as though the central bank largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Fed Governor Randal Quarles remains ‘optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy.’ Recent comments from Governor Quarles suggest the FOMC has yet to abandon the hiking-cycle as ‘further increases in the policy rate may be necessary at some point,’ and Fed officials may continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% as the central bank pledges to be ‘data dependent.’

Image of fed fund futures

Nevertheless, Fed Fund Futures still reflect a greater than 50% probability for a rate-cut in December, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to adjust the forward-guidance over the coming months as the central bank plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT). In turn, upcoming changes in Fed policy may shore up gold prices throughout 2019, with the price for bullion at risk of exhibiting a more bullish behavior over the coming days amid the string of failed attempts to test the 2019-low ($1277). Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold daily chart
  • The opening range for April is in focus as gold prices snap the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with the lack of momentum to close below the $1289 (23.6% expansion) area raising the risk for a larger rebound.
  • In turn, a move back above the Fibonacci overlap around $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement) brings the $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) region back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $1328 (50% expansion) to $1329 (50% expansion), which sits just above the March-high ($1324).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES