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EUR/USD Bear-Flag Formation Takes Shape as ECB Mulls QE Extension

EUR/USD Bear-Flag Formation Takes Shape as ECB Mulls QE Extension

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Bear-Flag Formation Takes Shape as ECB Mulls QE Extension/Adjustment.

- USD/JPY Topside Hurdles in Focus as RSI Approaches Overbought Territory.

CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The near-term rebound in EUR/USD may unwind over the days ahead as it appears to be establishing a bear-flag formation, and the pair may continue to give back the advance from earlier this year as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the downward tilt carried over from the end of August; a move back above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0940 (61.8% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement) would raise the risk for a test of trendline resistance.
  • The Euro stands at risk of facing additional headwinds over the remainder of the year as European Central Bank (ECB) board member Ewald Nowotny warns the Governing Council will make a decision in extending its asset-purchase program at the December 8 policy meeting, but the committee may also need to adjust the guidelines surrounding the non-standard measure as officials look at other available assets to add onto its balance sheet.
  • Failure to break below the March low (1.0822) may encourage a larger rebound going into the end of the month, but the broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside , with the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% retracement).
CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/JPY looks poised for a further advance as the pair preserves the upward trend carried over from the previous month and finally puts in a closing price above the near-term hurdle around 104.20 (61.8% retracement); will keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches overbought territory, with a break above 70 highlighting a pickup in the bullish momentum.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to retain the current policy at the next interest rate decision on November 1, the Japanese Yen stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds should Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. downgrade their economic projections and push out their forecast of achieving the 2% target for inflation.
  • USD/JPY is coming up against the next topside hurdle around 105.40 (50% retracement), with a break above the near-term hurdle raising the risk for a move back towards 106.60 (38.2% retracement) followed by the July-high (107.49).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since October 10, with the ratio hitting a 2016-extreme of +1.93 during the previous week, while traders have been net-long USD/JPY since July 21.
  • EUR/USD SSI stands at +1.41 as 59% of traders are long, with short positions 23.8% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 5.9% above the monthly average.
  • USD/JPY SSI stands at +1.08 as 52% of traders are long, with short positions 28.1% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands a marginal 1.7% higher against the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

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Read More:

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Forex Technical Focus: Range Highs for Nikkei; USD/JPY Lags

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.