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  • $GBPUSD corrects from stretched valuations, however, positioning clear is likely to entice dip-buyers. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/sfFdBx9pN6 https://t.co/j6nnry65SW
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/oQrOpYINOj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/LSVPlus0vv
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/rPd6B5KzuI
  • Time-cycle analysis suggests that the Japanese Yen could slide significantly lower against its major counterparts. Key levels for AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/WPq4Z9zzEw https://t.co/VzVLrBbL9q
  • The Australian Dollar looks poised to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it may lose ground to the New Zealand Dollar. Key levels for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cuxRxl5WaF https://t.co/pujrmqSxV7
  • Has anyone explained the risk of inflation on the markets in terms of tendies?
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/j2ICxgrLa3
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/9bkVXQuP5C https://t.co/cLNEG36mZ8
  • We just closed out the heaviest week of volume for the $SPY (US equities) since June and $TLT (Treasuries) since March 16
Canadian Dollar Weakness to Persist as BoC Adopts Dovish Outlook

Canadian Dollar Weakness to Persist as BoC Adopts Dovish Outlook

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Resilience to Persevere as Sticky Australia CPI Curbs Bets for RBA Rate-Cut.

- Canadian Dollar Weakness to Persist as BoC Adopts Dovish Outlook.

DailyFX

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUD/USD

0.7664

0.7709

0.7631

18

78

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Failure to test the monthly high (0.7733) may keep AUD/USD range-bound ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November 1 policy meeting as the central bank looks poised to endorse a wait-and-see approach; will retain a constructive outlook for the pair as long as it continues to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7580 (50% expansion) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement).
  • The uptick in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accompanied by the stickiness in the core rate of inflation may encourage the RBA to gradually move away from its easing-cycle as the rate-cuts from earlier this year continue to work their way through the real economy; may see more of the same from Governor Philip Lowe & Co. as the region continues to ‘grow at a moderate rate..
  • Waiting for a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7730 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion) to put the ascending triangle formation in play, with a break of the 2016-high (0.7835) opening up the next topside region of interest around 0.7860 (61.8% expansion).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3333

1.3381

1.3315

18

66

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Broader outlook for USD/CAD remains constructive as the pair preserves the upward trend carried over from the summer months, but the exchange rate stands at risk of facing a near-term pullback as it comes off of channel resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to have made another failed attempt to break out of the bearish pattern; will keep a close eye on the slew of moving averages as the 50-Day looks poised to cross above the 200-Day, but the difference in slope largely negates the likelihood of a ‘golden cross.’
  • With crude oil prices struggling to get back above $50, a further decline in energy prices may dampen the appeal of the Canadian dollar and push the Bank of Canada (BoC) to endorse an even more dovish outlook for monetary policy as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. now see the economy returning ‘to full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July;’ may see the BoC retain the current policy at the last 2016 policy meeting on December 7 as the central bank continues to lean on fiscal officials to support the real economy.
  • Will continue to watch the topside targets especially on a longer-term horizon as USD/CAD preserves the ascending channel from earlier this year, with a break of the monthly high (1.3397) opening up the next region of interest around 1.3460 (61.8% retracement), while near-term support comes in around 1.2980 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3040 (50% expansion).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a bit of back and forth in AUD/USD positioning, with the retail crowd flipping back net-short going into the end of the month, while traders have been net-short USD/CAD since October 20.
  • AUD/USD SSI stands at -1.16 as 46% of traders are long, with short positions 16.3% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 9.3% below the monthly average.
  • USD/CAD SSI stands at -1.82 as 36% of traders are long, with short positions 51.4% higher from the previous week even as open interest stands 6.9% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

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Read More:

EUR/CAD Rebound or Reversal? Line-in-the-Stand at 1.4600

USD Breakout – Does it Have Room to Run?

Gold Price and Oil See Headwinds as USD Strongest Since February

Forex Technical Focus: Range Highs for Nikkei; USD/JPY Lags

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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