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NZD/USD Retains Bearish Momentum Ahead of RBNZ- 0.7175 in Focus

NZD/USD Retains Bearish Momentum Ahead of RBNZ- 0.7175 in Focus

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on RBNZ; Forward-Guidance in Focus.

- Gold (XAUUSD)$1,155 Support at Risk as Bearish RSI Momentum Gathers Pace.

- USDOLLAR Approaching Channel Resistance Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales.

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NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.50%, NZD/USD may face fresh 2015 lows should the central bank further delay its normalization cycle and implement a dovish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum, a break of the February low (0.7175) would expose 0.7140-50 (78.6% expansion).
  • Despite the recent weakness in NZD/USD, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped net-long ahead of RBNZ, with the ratio currently standing at +1.06.


XAU/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • String of lower-highs in Gold (XAU/USD) favors the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ especially as the RSI retains the bearish momentum and pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Still appears as though gold is being treated more as a commodity rather than a currency as it largely moves in-line with silver (XAG/USD).
  • Break of the $1,155 (61.8% retracement) support zone would bring up $1,136 (100% expansion) next on the radar.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12076.1812084.4112031.10.28104.32%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to clear near-term targets as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace; will continue to look for further strength as the oscillator pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Despite expectations of seeing a 0.3% rebound in U.S. Retail Sales, may see private-sector continue to disappoint as wage growth remains subdued.
  • Looking for a close above 12,073 (100% expansion) to favor a further advance; will watch the 12,100 handle for psychological resistance.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 6)11:00---1.3%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.