Talking Points
- GBPAUD eyes key resistance zone-Long scalps at risk sub-1.9887
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Event Risk on Tap This Week
GBP/AUD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- GBPAUD rally now coming into key resistance at 1.9820, 1.9887 (bearish invalidation)
- Long scalps at risk below this level zone
- Breach targets longer-term resistance objectives at 2.0027 & 2.0230
- Interim support at 1.9630/45 (near-term bullish invalidation)
- Support break targets median line ~9350 & key support at 1.9185-1.9224
- Daily RSI coming into 60-resistance, break keep topside in focus
- Break sub-50 with a move below the weekly ORL reinforces reversal play
- Event Risk Ahead: UK Industrial / Manufacturing Production & Australian Employment Report tomorrow
GBP/AUD 30min
Notes:The focus is on near-term resistance just higher with divergence in the intra-day momentum signature warning of possible exhaustion. The pair has continued to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork off the yearly highs with a breach above this resistance region risking a continuation of the broader up-trend.
Bottom line: we’ll be looking to sell rallies / short-triggers while below the highlighted resistance region just below 1.9850 with a break sub-1.9630/45 needed to reaffirm the reversal play. Such a scenario targets subsequent support objectives into the 1.95-handle & the weekly ORL at 1.9450. More significant support rests lower at 1.9327/63.Note that this is a long-range setup with a quarter of the daily ATR yielding profit targets of 49-53 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into the UK & Aussie data tomorrow with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in GBP & AUD crosses.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- Post NFP Scalps Target USD Breakout - Weekly Opening Ranges in Focus
- NFP Setups in Focus- USD Breakout Plays
- GBPAUD Reversal at Interim Support- Scalps Target 1.9500
- Scalps Target USDCAD Breakout Heading Into BoC, NFPs
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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