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EUR Outlook Remains Bearish- GBP Threatens Bearish Trend Ahead of BoE

EUR Outlook Remains Bearish- GBP Threatens Bearish Trend Ahead of BoE

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Outlook Weighed as EU Tries to Buy More Time For Greece.

- GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Channel Ahead of BoE Inflation Report..

- USDOLLAR Outlook Vulnerable to Further Contraction in Retail Sales.

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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD remains vulnerable as Greece struggles to secure a bailout agreement with the EU; may put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further support the monetary union as policy makers struggle to meet on common ground.
  • Will retain a bearish outlook for EUR/USD as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the downward trend dating back to October 2013.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD, but seeing the ratio narrow as it currently stands at -1.56.


  • GBP/USD making another assault at channel resistance ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report; remains at risk for a larger rebound as the RSI has already broken out of the bearish momentum.
  • There’s growing speculation the BoE may further reduce its inflation forecast, but will keep a close eye on the forward-guidance for monetary policy as Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • Will keep a close eye on the opening range, with the key region of interest coming in around the former support zone near 1.5500-10.

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Read More:

AUDCAD Threatens Weekly Opening Range- Long Scalps Favored Above 9750

Weekly Setups Target Key Opening Ranges in USD, GBP, Gold & Silver

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11873.8311877.3411827.790.3174.66%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may retain the monthly opening range as U.S. Advance Retail Sales are expected to contract another 0.4% contraction in January.
  • A further downturn in household spending may dampen the Fed’s scope to normalize monetary policy in mid-2015 as lower energy prices fail to boost private-sector consumption.
  • Will continue to watch the broader range from 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 6)12:00---9.0%
Fed’s Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy13:00
Monthly Budget Statement19:00-$19.0B

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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