Talking Points
- Setups discussed in today’s live webinar
- USD strength at risk below key resistance- gold, silver at key support
- Key Event Risk on Tap
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Notes:Despite Friday’s stellar NFP print, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has continued to hold below key resistance at 11,854/80. This level is defined by the monthly opening range high, the 2009 high, and pitchfork resistance off a structure dating back to the 2011 low. Our initial focus is against this region with an embedded structure off the July low yet to be tested as support. Note that the momentum signature has not dipped sub-60 since October and this will be our first indication that a larger correction may be in play. That said, the up-trend is in play until we break below pitchfork support with the monthly opening range in focus heading into the start of the week (11,736-11,880). A breach of the highs targets pitchfork resistance which converges on the 100% extension at 12,049 towards the end of the week.
GBP/USD Daily
Notes:A follow-up to last week’s GBPUSD setup where we were targeting the advance into resistance- the pound has since responded to this zone with a reversal candle on Friday. The region is defined by the confluence of a trendline resistance extending off the July high, a 78.6% retracement, a long-dated trendline support dating back to 2009 and a median line off the January low. This region remains critical near-term and as such will serve as our bearish invalidation level. Note the weekly opening range so far has highlighted 1.5200- 1.5270 as a region of interest with a break of said region to validate our near-term directional bias. Base case scenario, we see a test, rebound & break of pitchfork support, currently around 1.5150.
Gold Daily
Notes:On January 22nd we highlighted that gold had come into technical resistance with the long side now at risk. A week later gold tumbled through the bullish invalidation level at 1262, with the decline now coming back into a key area of technical support. The 1225/30 region is defined by pitchfork support dating back to the November low, a longer-dated median-line dating back to 2013 and the 100% extension of the decline off the January high. Short exposure into this region is now at risk with a rebound back above the 200-day moving average at 1252 needed to re-assert the long bias. A break sub 1218 opens up targets at 1197-1206 & 1171.
Silver Daily
Notes: The silver setup is similar to that of gold with the trade coming into a confluence region of support defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2015 year-to-date range, the October opening range low and current operative pitchfork support off the November low (16.62/68). What sets this trade aside however, is that the monthly opening range is shaping up just below key technical resistance with the November median-line, 2014 pitchfork resistance and a trendline extending off the 2011 high all stacked up into 17.70. This is the region is reserved as our near-term bearish invalidation level. That said- focus is on the break of the monthly opening range 16.55 – 17.72.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- Scalping GBPUSD Correction- Long Scalps in Play Ahead of BoE, NFP
- Scalping USDJPY Opening Range Ahead of NFPs- Shorts Favored Sub-118
- Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX at 13:30 GMT (8:30ET)
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