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Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44

Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURAUD opening range shift focus higher
  • Rally targeting near-term resistance at 1.4650
  • Event Risk on Tap


Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURAUD weekly opening range break puts long-scalps in play
  • Topside resistance objectives at 1.4547- bearish invalidation (note 2013 ML in blue)
  • Breach targets 1.4808 & key resistance at 1.5028/56
  • Bias remains constructive above 1.4364/83- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI testing a breach above 50- close above would be bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Eurozone CPI Estimate & Unemployment Rate tomorrow & RBA Interest Rate Decision on Monday

EUR/AUD 30min

Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44

Notes:Similar to the GBPAUD setup featured yesterday, the EURAUD broke above the weekly opening range and near-term resistance last night at 1.4366/83, shifting the scalp bias to the long-side of the pair. The near-term bias remains constructive while above the median-line off the monthly lows with key resistance coming into view just higher at 1.4615/47. Note that the upper median-line parallel comes in just higher (daily chart also has a median line dating back to August 2013 high) and if breached is likely to fuel further advances into initial targets at 1.4712 & 1.4808.

Bottom line: looking to buy pullbacks / resistance trigger breaks in momentum while above 1.4366 with a breach above 1.4650 needed to keep the topside in play. A break below the median-line bisector invalidates our near-term bias with such a scenario targeting the lower MLP currently just above the 1.41-handle. The range is rather healthy here with a quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yielding profit targets of 50-53 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted ahead of Eurozone data tomorrow and the RBA interest rate decision early next week with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in EUR & AUD crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Scalping EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.44

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.