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GBP/USD Threatens Range, Retains Bullish Momentum Despite Soft UK CPI

GBP/USD Threatens Range, Retains Bullish Momentum Despite Soft UK CPI

2014-12-16 17:50:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Threatens Range Despite Soft U.K. CPI- BoE Minutes in Focus.

- NZD/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs Ahead of Widening Current Account Deficit.

- USDOLLAR Fails to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of FOMC Meeting, Yellen Press Conference.

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GBP/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the marked slowdown in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), GBP/USD appears to be breaking out of the range-bound price action as the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace; waiting for a close above 1.5720-30 for conviction/confirmation.
  • Bank of England (BoE) sees lower energy prices boosting economic activity, but the meeting minutes may continue to reveal a 7-2 split as the majority remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently holding at +1.32.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD may continue to operate within the downward trending channel amid the ongoing series of lower-highs; will continue to favor downside targets with the bearish RSI momentum in play.
  • New Zealand’s 3Q Current Account Balance may dampen the appeal of kiwi as report is expected to show the largest deficit since 2008.
  • Will keep a close eye on the monthly as it lines up with the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7600-20, with the next downside region of interest coming in at 0.7520 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

Crude Oil, RUB Meltdown Continue - Not Impacting USD Profit Taking

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11389.24

11441.25

11347.55

-0.40

150.85%

GBP/USD Threatens Range, Retains Bullish Momentum Despite Soft UK CPIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar faces a risk for a larger correction as it fails to retain the bullish RSI momentum carried over from July; will look for a close below 11,392 for favor a further decline.
  • Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to implement a more hawkish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy, may see Chair Janet Yellen strike a relatively balanced tone at the press conference following the interest rate decision.
  • String of lower highs & lows may foster a larger pullback, with former resistance zones around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) in focus.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Housing Starts (NOV)

13:30

1040K

1028K

Housing Starts (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

3.1%

-1.6%

Building Permits (NOV)

13:30

1065K

1035K

Building Permits (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

-2.5%

-5.2%

Markit Purchasing Manger Index Manufacturing (DEC P)

14:45

55.2

53.7

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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