Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart


  • US Dollar shrugs off timid FOMC minutes, rises to six-month high
  • Risk aversion reveals USD continues to command safe haven appeal
  • Trade war and Italy fears might furnish the rally with fresh fodder

See our quarterly US Dollar forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

The US Dollar continued to push higher last week, hitting a six-month high against an average of its major counterparts. The release of minutes from the May 2 FOMC meeting inspired a pullback. The document did not advance the case for further steepening of the expected rate hike path. Markets took that as reason enough for a correction, but this proved to be short-lived.

Perhaps most interestingly, the greenback demonstrated its continued appeal as a haven asset during times of risk aversion. It roared higher as a steep drop in crude oil prices inspired a near-3 percent drop in energy shares that pulled down overall US stock benchmarks. The move came after oil ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia signaled an output cut scheme they have championed might soon be unwound.

Top-tier economic data returns in the week ahead. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is expected to see on-year price growth holding at the target 2 percent for the second consecutive month while official labor-market statistics show job creation narrowly accelerated in May. On balance, such outcomes are likely to keep rate hike bets at status quo, neither advancing the cautiously hawkish narrative nor derailing it.

This may well keep sentiment trends at the forefront. A belligerent White House has unnerved investors, stoking trade war fears with comments disparaging US/China trade talks and hints at another hike in tariffs, this time on auto imports. Meanwhile, the populist eurosceptic government taking shape in Italy continues to inspire trepidation.

None of these headwinds appear likely to dissipate in the near term, suggesting a risk-off tone is more likely than not to persist in the coming. Absent an improbably dramatic disappointment on the data front, that seems to portend continued sentiment-linked gains for the global reserve currency.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter