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S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

2020-08-08 04:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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SPX S&P 500 Chart

Source: IG Charts

S&P 500, FTSE 100 Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | Nearing Record High
  • FTSE 100 |Negative Rates Lower Down the Pecking Order of Stimulus Measures
Equity index performance chart

Source: DailyFX, Refinitiv

S&P 500 | Nearing Record High

Another stellar week for US equities with tech stocks once again leading the charge. Friday’s NFP report provides further encouragement that the recovery remains intact. That said, perhaps what will be key to providing a further lift to equity markets will be next week’s retail sales data. As it stands, higher frequency data has thus far shown a slowdown in consumption amid renewed restrictions in several US states. We await next week’s retail sales for confirmation.

Elsewhere, US-China tensions continue to pick-up, this time with the US looking to impose sanctions on Hong Kong Chief Carrie Lam. This backdrop comes ahead of the US reviewing the current trade deal on August 15th as to whether China has adhered to the pact. Therefore we place a close on US rhetoric towards China ahead of the compliance review, while there is also a risk of a retaliation from Beijing in regard to the recent sanctions.

Trump Support Benefits from Anti-China Rhetoric

China views from US
US 500 BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% -5% -3%
Weekly -1% -4% -3%
What does it mean for price action?
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S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500 price chart

Source: IG Charts

FTSE 100 |Negative Rates Lower Down the Pecking Order of Stimulus Measures

The Bank of England kicked back expectations of negative rates in the UK with the central bank stating that other tools are at its disposal, suggesting that the NIRP is lower down the pecking order of stimulus measures. That said, the FTSE 100 appears to be settling in a lower range with the index failing to make strides above 6100. Short-term support is situated at 5850 with a move below opening up 5600. Next week will see the release of the UK Q2 GDP report, however, given that this data comes with a lag we expect this to have a minimal impact on UK assets.

FTSE 100 BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% -12% 4%
Weekly 31% -34% 6%
What does it mean for price action?
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FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

FTSE price chart

Source: IG Charts

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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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