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EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

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Oil - US Crude
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Gold
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GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
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High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

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  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/OCLzmXaDCu
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/UZela9nSIm
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/7oqC3ykBbU
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/IgUIG55MbH
  • Supply constraints, rebounding global demand and rising inflation expectations may drive crude oil prices higher in the near term. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/ezPoAwcJt7 https://t.co/NMfk1cYSvE
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/OiRiBVeuzL
  • Crude Oil Prices Aiming Higher on OPEC Surprise, Inflation Expectations - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/03/06/Crude-Oil-Prices-Aiming-Higher-on-OPEC-Surprise-Inflation-Expectations.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CL #Crudeoil #OOTT #OPEC https://t.co/AKvXWX9DLQ
  • Given the size of the rally in the eleven months preceding the beginning of the current decline a broader sell-off looks warranted. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/UxZiSulpwB https://t.co/raXvlzkGbV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/lp0tmKS9WR
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/3bOSIBeID9
S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Justin McQueen, Analyst

S&P 500, FTSE 100 Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | State-Wide Restrictions to Damage Risk Appetite
  • FTSE 100 | UK Assets Remain Unloved Amid Political Uncertainty
Equity market performance

Source: DailyFX

S&P 500 | State-Wide Restrictions to Damage Risk Appetite

COVID Cases Rising Sharply in the US

Coronavirus cases in the US reached a record daily high as concerns mount over a potential second wave in a number of states across the US. This has been most evident in Florida and Texas, in which the latter has halted plans of further reopening and thus raises concerns over the trajectory of the economic recovery, particularly if an escalation prompts state-wide lockdowns. That said, this is not just a US-centric story as other countries have also seen a pick up in COVID cases, including Germany, Japan, and China. As such, market participants will continue to assess the rising number of virus cases, whereby a continued pick up can keep risk appetite pressured. Notable economic data points to watch include the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls

Portfolio Rebalancing Flows

In other news, with the end of the month and quarter nearing, attention will be placed on potential rebalancing, in which investment banks have signaled a possible sizeable outflow from equities into fixed income in light of the outperformance across the equity space.

US 500 BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% -2% -1%
Weekly 8% -9% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
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S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500 Price Chart

Source: IG Charts

Softer Equities is Dollar Supportive

Cross asset correlation matrix

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

FTSE 100 | UK Assets Remain Unloved Amid Political Uncertainty

UK-EU trade talks intensify as both parties look to head for a showdown throughout the Summer and Autumn months. The current impasse and continued political uncertainty sees UK assets remain unloved among investors. As such, with both the EU and UK unlikely to reach a breakthrough next week as the deadline for a transition period extension passes, upside in the FTSE appears to be limited.

Elsewhere, focus will also be on the Bank of England with several speeches scheduled for next week. Perhaps the most intriguing will be the speech of Chief Economist Andy Haldane who dissented at the prior meeting, by voting against boosting QE. That said, continued rhetoric over negative interest rates being adopted in the UK will also be of note.

BoE Speakers in Full Force

BOE speaker schedule

Source: Bank of England

FTSE 100 BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -15% 5% -10%
Weekly -33% 50% -20%
What does it mean for price action?
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FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

FTSE 100 Charts

Source: IG Charts

RESOURCES FOR TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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