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USD/JPY Decline to Eye August Low on Japan Trade Surplus, Dovish Fed

USD/JPY Decline to Eye August Low on Japan Trade Surplus, Dovish Fed

David Song, Strategist
USD/JPY Decline to Eye August Low on Japan Trade Surplus, Dovish FedUSD/JPY Decline to Eye August Low on Japan Trade Surplus, Dovish Fed

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bullish

The key event risks due out next week may heighten the appeal of the Japanese Yen and fuel a further decline in USD/JPY should the developments undermine speculation for a further expansion in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) asset-purchase program.

Despite bets for a larger quantitative/qualitative easing (QQE) program, a Trade Balance surplus may boost the outlook for the export-driven economy and keep the central bank on the sidelines as BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation goal over the policy horizon. At the same time, the BoJ may continue to tone down the verbal intervention on the low-yielding currency as the central bank head favors the exchange rate to move in a more stable manner, and we may get more of the same the next interest rate decision on October 30 as the board continues to see a moderate recovery ahead.

In contrast, the ongoing batch of mixed U.S. data prints may highlight a bearish outlook for the dollar and dampen the Fed’s scope to normalize monetary policy later this year as Governor Daniel Tarullo warns subdued wage growth accompanied by the global disinflationary environment does not warrant higher borrowing-costs. In turn, the speeches by Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker, New York Fed President William Dudley, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Chair Janet Yellen scheduled for the week ahead may play a key role in dictating near-term price action for USD/JPY as market participants continue to weigh the timing of the liftoff.

As a result, positive data prints out of Japan coupled with dovish remarks from Fed officials may spur a further decline in USD/JPY as the pair fails to retain the range-bound price action carried over from September. With that said, the August low (116.07) sits on the radar, and the dollar-yen may continue to congest over the remainder of the year especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely preserves the bearish formation from June.

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