News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.52% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.44% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.32% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Lh2TJjviR7
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 07:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Canadian Dollar Outlook: Retail Sales Data May Fuel USD/CAD Downtrend - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/10/21/Canadian-Dollar-Outlook-Retail-Sales-Data-May-Fuel-USDCAD-Downtrend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CAD $CADJPY $USDCAD https://t.co/sCKDAgobER
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.55% Wall Street: 0.46% Germany 30: 0.25% France 40: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wmmWvAUv4Y
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/soVRqRLnrT
  • 🇬🇧 Core Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 0.6% Expected: 1.3% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate MoM (SEP) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.5% Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (SEP) Actual: £-36.1B Expected: £-33.6B Previous: £-35.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 0.5% Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Inflation Rate MoM (SEP) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.5% Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Turns More Bearish After Failure at 1.20

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Turns More Bearish After Failure at 1.20

2020-09-19 23:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • It was only a couple of weeks ago that ECB President Christine Lagarde disappointed the Euro bears when she made no mention of the 1.20 level for EUR/USD as being too high for the central bank given its goal of price stability.
  • Nonetheless, rather than climbing back to 1.20 and above, EUR/USD has fallen – and that has weakened the technical position of the pair, suggesting more losses to come.

EUR/USD technical outlook deteriorates

Back on September 10, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was widely expected to talk the Euro down when she held her regular press conference following the decision by the central bank’s Governing Council to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged, as expected.

Instead, she said only that the ECB had discussed the Euro’s appreciation and would monitor the exchange rate carefully. For Euro bulls that was a green light to push EUR/USD back to and above the 1.20 level topped briefly on September 1. Yet, instead, it has dropped back, leaving the pair in a weak state technically and a further fall to the downside more likely than a recovery.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (March 6 – September 17, 2020)

EURUSD Price Chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

As the chart above shows, the decline in EUR/USD pushed the price below 1.18 last week and below the 50-day moving average for the first time since May 25. If the 20-dma were now to drop below the 50-dma that would weaken the outlook further, especially as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is not yet sending out an oversold signal.

Starts in:
Live now:
Oct 27
( 10:10 GMT )
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Trading Sentiment
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Eurozone data to prompt Euro weakness?

As the coming week is a busy one for Eurozone economic data, one possibility is that disappointing numbers will act as a catalyst for a further EUR/USD decline. Two releases in particular could be important: the Eurozone ‘flash’ purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for September, due Wednesday, and the German Ifo business climate index for this month, due the next day.

These are among the first September numbers scheduled so should give a good indication of the strength of the Eurozone economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Several other releases will also give an idea of how confident consumers and businesses are in the recovery. The ‘flash’ Eurozone consumer confidence figure for September is due Tuesday, followed by GfK’s measure of German consumer confidence Wednesday and French business confidence Thursday.

EUR/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -11% 11% 4%
Weekly -29% 30% 5%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

We look at currencies regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

You can also find more here about how central bank policies impact the FX market and traders’ decisions

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES