News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.003%) S&P 500 (+0.073%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.021%) [delayed] -BBG
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc Analysis: USD/JPY, USD/CHF May Fall as Long Bets Rise #Yen #Franc $USDJPY $USDCHF
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Gold Prices Probe Barrier as Inflation Data Sinks the USD and Yields
  • The Indian Rupee rose as the Nifty 50 slightly fell after the RBI left benchmark rates unchanged despite recent weakening inflation and a massive fiscal spending plan. Will USD/INR bounce? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.35% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via
  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Poised to Extend Climb - $GBP $GBPUSD $GBPJPY
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Swiss Franc Forecast: Why CHF May be at Risk Despite Wobbly Stocks, Eyes on SNB

Swiss Franc Forecast: Why CHF May be at Risk Despite Wobbly Stocks, Eyes on SNB

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Swiss Franc Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

  • Swiss Franc has been underperforming despite stock market volatility
  • Prospects of dovish SNB policy in the long run leaves CHF vulnerable
  • Still, risk aversion may trim the Franc’s downward trajectory near-term
The Quiz
Discover what kind of forex trader you are
Start Quiz

The Swiss Franc has been struggling to capitalize on recent jitters in global stock markets and it may continue to underperform ahead. CHF tends to do well when market volatility is on the rise and vice versa thanks to its anti-risk attributes, particularly when comparing it against other currencies in Europe. So despite some wobbliness in stocks as of late, especially in the tech sector, what might explain its underwhelming performance?

Before diving into that, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may actually welcome further declines in CHF, particularly with the next monetary policy announcement coming up on March 25th. Switzerland’s export-oriented economy means that a strong local currency can bring with it deflationary forces. The SNB has been struggling to bring up CPI to its 2% price target for years, intervening in forex markets to keep deflation at bay.

As the coronavirus ravaged global financial markets last year, the central bank had to aggressively step up efforts to prevent its anti-risk currency from appreciating too rapidly. It ramped up total sight deposits, a proxy of foreign exchange reserves, to help cool strength in the CHF – see chart below. But since then, the SNB has been letting off the gas pedal, especially given the currency’s recent depreciation.

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar for incoming Switzerland data

Swiss National Bank Total Sight Deposits

Swiss Franc Forecast: Why CHF May be at Risk Despite Wobbly Stocks, Eyes on SNB

Now the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine around the world and massive fiscal stimulus from the United States are bringing with them prospects of reflation. This can be seen by taking a look at longer-term Treasury rates, with the 10-year up almost 240% from August’s bottom. Rising government bond yields have also been seen in Switzerland, though the entire yield curve (from the front-end to the 50-year rate) still remains negative.

In fact, the SNB holds the title as the central bank with the lowest benchmark lending rate, coming in at -0.75%. Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg noted that the country’s deeply negative policy rate and intervention will continue to be necessary. Despite inflation bets rising in parts of the world and markets starting to price in early stages of tapering from the United States as economic data outperforms, the SNB may stay low in the long run.

You can see these expectations by looking at 10-year bond yield spreads between the United States and Switzerland. On the chart below, the Swiss Franc has been depreciating as returns on fixed income rise externally, making the CHF relatively less appealing versus its major counterparts. Meanwhile, prospects of low rates will likely mean that the Franc continues to remain a dominant funding currency in the carry trade.

Ahead, Chair Jerome Powell is due to testify, alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, before the Senate Banking Committee this coming week. If asked about bonds, Mr Powell may continue to reiterate similar commentary about them. So while the CHF may be vulnerable from a yield perspective, still it should be noted that risk aversion could slow its depreciation seen as of late.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Why do interest rates matter for currencies?
Get My Guide

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar for the latest updates on some these events

Swiss Franc Underperforming as 10-Year Treasury Yield Outperforms Switzerland Counterpart

Swiss Franc Forecast: Why CHF May be at Risk Despite Wobbly Stocks, Eyes on SNB

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.