News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX! A look at the levels heading into #FOMC -
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • Markets Week Ahead: Euro, Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Earnings, Inflation Check out @RichDvorakFX's latest market recap and preview plus all the weekly forecasts from the @DailyFXTeam at the link below! Link to Analysis - $EURUSD $SPX #Trading
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Still Primed for Higher Ground

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Still Primed for Higher Ground

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Gold, XAU/USD, Inflation Bets - Talking Points

  • XAU/USD still primed for move higher as Fed’s QE continues to expand
  • Shifting U.S. political climate poses risks to gold’s fundamental drivers
  • Treasury-Federal Reserve discourse over CARES funding boosts gold

XAU/USD Fundamental Outlook: Bullish


Gold prices fell for a second consecutive week as traders reassessed their outlook on global markets. Fundamental macro drivers in the global economy continue to rapidly shift. The yellow metal is down over 4.5% from its monthly high of 1965.55 set on November 9. Despite the recent drop, XAU/USD remains over 20% higher year-to-date. Still, recent discourse between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury injected some risk-off bidding on gold to end the week, pushing prices marginally higher.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in a letter to the Federal Reserve, asked for about $430 billion in unused CARES Act funding to be returned from a portion of emergency lending facilities set to expire at the end of the year. The letter caused some confusion, resulting in a response from the Federal Reserve highlighting the need for these facilities to continue as a backstop. Gold reacted to the uncertainty, rising above the 1870 handle.

Gold Hourly Price Chart

Gold price chart

Chart created with TradingView

Gold bullish sentiment has been flying high this year, as the inflation hedge looked primed to benefit traders’ portfolios. Investors keyed in on several bullish drivers, but one principal cause stands out, unprecedented monetary stimulus. Faced with severe economic consequences this year, central banks worldwide took decisive action through monetary policy tools, most notably quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to grow as these efforts continue.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, TIPS Bond ETF, Gold

Gold vs TIPS vs Fed balance sheet

Chart created with TradingView

That said, investors and economists forecasted an environment conducive to rising inflationary pressures. So far, however, inflation has failed to manifest through current data in a meaningful way. Market expectations still appear poised to the upside, though to a lesser extent. The iShares TIPS bond ETF, which tracks U.S. inflation-protected securities, has risen alongside gold for much of this year. The recent pullback in the ETF reflects well with Gold’s decline following highs set in August.

The easing in inflation expectations is likely, in part, caused by the 2020 U.S. election outcome. The projected political climate in the country appears poised to deliver less fiscal stimulus as the projected presidential winner, Joe Biden, will likely face pushback from the GOP-controlled Senate on any significant stimulus measure. Consequently, inflationary pressures appear less likely on the fiscal side.

All things considered, the economic outlook remains subject to the ongoing Covid pandemic. While a vaccine approval appears imminent, distribution will likely take many more months. In the meantime, the worsening virus situation leaves much uncertainty for investors to mull over. Overall, with the Federal Reserve and other central banks continuing to support the economy through monetary efforts, the outlook for gold should remain to the upside, despite a muddied outlook on fiscal stimulus.


Just getting started? See our beginners’ guide for FX traders

What is your trading personality? Take our quiz to find out

Join a free webinar and have your trading questions answered

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.