News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4uyJxc09OH
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pbfmvnsvuu
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NL3bVphnYH
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.64% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uZ1HjcIJ4q
  • GBP/USD continues to fail around the 1.3400 level and is unlikely to make a confirmed break higher ahead of any trade talk confirmation. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EWLFXK1q3q https://t.co/4XSSNxobMo
  • The Gold price sell-off has broken below key technical barriers and leaves the outlook for XAU/USD weighted to the downside heading into the close of the month. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3YLcAFlr5f https://t.co/1uFb9UkDvV
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OvThGydQBs
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Yq6wLxhblV
  • Vaccine Optimism Sparks 28% Increase in Oil Prices. Get your #crudeoil market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/F3AlSkniXk https://t.co/qevY4Gh6o9
Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook

Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook

2017-09-16 01:27:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices snapped a three week winning streak with the precious metal down 1.72% to trade at 1323 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come alongside a rebound in the USD and Treasury yields despite expectation the FOMC will hold rates next week.

All eyes will be on Janet Yellen & Co next week when the Federal Reserve holds its quarterly interest rate decision on September 20th. Markets will be closely eying the fresh quarterly projections from Fed officials as they pertain to growth, employment and interest rates. In the wake of hurricanes Harvey & Irma, central bank doves may argue to further delay the normalization cycle with the dollar likely to face further headwinds if the committee opts for a shallower path for interest rates.

Gold has been well-supported over the past few months on persistent weakness in the greenback and rising geo-political tensions and that’s not likely to end anytime soon. That said, prices responded to structural resistance this week and although the pullback may have a bit further to go, the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive.

New to Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +2.28 (69.5% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 12.4% higher than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 10.8% lower than yesterday and 23.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Learn how to use Gold sentiment in your trading.Get more information on Sentiment here Free!

Gold Daily

Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook

Last week we highlighted that, “While the rally in gold has been quite impressive, prices are now approaching some longer-term objectives and even though the broader focus remains constructive, heading into next week the risk remains for some corrective price action before heading higher.” Indeed gold reversed off confluence resistance this week with the pullback now testing support at 1321/25 into the close of the week. Note that prices have now set a clean monthly opening-range just above basic trendline support and we’ll be looking for a break of this region for further guidance on the near-term outlook.

Join Michael for his bi-weekly Live Webinar on the Foundations of Technical Analysis- Register for Free Here!

Gold 240min

Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy OutlookGold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook

A closer look at price action highlights the potential for a bull-flag formation here. Watch for support next week into the monthly opening-range low / lower parallel at 1316 with a breach of this near-term descending channel targeting 1355 & the 2016 high-close at 1366. A more significant Fibonacci consideration is eyed just higher at1377/79. A close below 1295/99 would be needed to suggest a more meaningful correction is underway.

Bottom line: prices need to stabilize at these levels if the broader uptrend off the July lows is to remain viable. Look for a definitive break of the monthly opening range heading into the Fed next week.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES