News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/Jkv0onMyZw
  • Why is JPY called a safe haven? What are some factors in its favor this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/S4bwgGZxmw
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/T3W8CIg5iy
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/FPgZ5gkgrM
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/E0KhcKHrOf
  • For some reason an old story has popped up - many apologies.... https://t.co/jHjQxyFRXM
  • The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/VY3SLs35cp https://t.co/w5ljByv9cf
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/CpqePQYF4E
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/Rg2YGZCUCr
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/ftrbRkFiJF
Battered Australian Dollar Could Face Yet More Disappointing Data

Battered Australian Dollar Could Face Yet More Disappointing Data

2019-04-26 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
AUD Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • The Federal Reserve’s policy call will dominate the week
  • Dovishness here could help battered Aussie bulls
  • They’ll need all the help they can get, however

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar was clobbered last week by feeble domestic inflation data which, according to interest rate futures markets, have all-but nailed down two quarter-point cuts to the record-low Official Cash Rate over the next eighteen months.

Before those data came out, only one hack was fully priced. Now the betting has increased on a 1% OCR by February of next year, from 1.50% now.

AUD/USD had gained this year as the markets moved to price in fewer interest rate rises in the US. Now the realization has dawned that a cautious Federal Reserve is likely to mean at least equal caution in developed market central banks elsewhere. Sure enough, AUD/USD is back within the pervasive downtrend which endured for much of 2018.

The coming week will offer investors snapshots of Australia’s manufacturing and service sectors, along with equivalent, Purchasing Managers Index figures out of China. There may be scope for disappointment here based on other recent bellwethers- notably last week’s shock news of growth contraction in South Korea.

There may also be further headlines related to trade talks between China and the US. These concern the Australian Dollar market deeply given Australia’s strong trading links with Beijing and its security ties to Washington. All of the above may offer investors fairly binary short-term trading opportunity but the week’s main event for this market and all others will be Wednesday’s monetary policy call from the Federal Reserve.

The latest Reuters survey on the subject suggests that economists believe that US rate rises are over for now, with a few prepared to back a cut as the next move, albeit not soon.

All up then, a dovish Fed may relieve some pressure on the Australian Dollar, but the economic numbers may underwhelm and trade-deal headlines are hard to predict in advance. Therefore, it probably has to be a guardedly bearish call for the Aussie this week, even if the bulls seem unlikely to suffer quite as much of a pounding as they did last.

AUD/USD

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES