News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/oqbtFfeo4K
  • 🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) Actual: £-35.92B Expected: £-35.1B Previous: £-15.44B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • The US Dollar, British Pound, and Euro will all be closely watching key geopolitical developments in North America (Powell testimony), the UK (Brexit talks) and Europe (EU summit). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/q4AJW6PTCu https://t.co/w6ETarBuNl
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: £-35.1B Previous: £-25.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • $EURUSD break below the neckline of a 2-month Head and Shoulders pattern suggests that a test of the 200-MA could be on the cards. However, with support holding at the 38.2% Fib and the RSI swerving away from oversold territory, could this prove to be a mere false-break? $EUR https://t.co/ZIiVc4gAyP
  • Following recent price action and developing technical patterns, $USDINR may rise while the #nifty50 could be at risk to further losses. Check out my full technical report here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/09/25/Indian-Rupee-Nifty-50-Technical-View-USDINR-May-Rise-as-Index-Falls.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/faEdOS8aMA
  • S&P 500 index vs. Fed balance sheet (2015-2020) https://t.co/6iFs2y2L68
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.01%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 67.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H5Xd8swRpB
  • Gold and silver are at risk of extending their slide from monthly highs as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus and rising geopolitical tensions underpin USD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/sYF5pV9zrE https://t.co/7ISKJ2r1Ea
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/heYtrV7dTD
Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior

Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior

2017-07-29 00:08:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior

Fundamental Forecast for Australia Dollar: Neutral

AUD/USD stands at risk for a near-term pullback as it initiates a bearish sequence, but the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) August 1 interest rate decision may trigger fresh yearly highs in the exchange rate should Governor Philip Lowe & Co. alter the course for monetary policy.

Even though the RBA is widely expected to keep the official cash rate at the record-low of 1.50%, the accompanying statement may boost the appeal of the Australian dollar if the central bank shows a greater willingness to move away from its easing-cycle. The RBA may highlight a hawkish outlook as the ‘Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete,’ and Governor Lowe and Co. may start to prepare Australian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costsas ‘the data available for the June quarter had generally been positive.’

Sign Up and Join the DailyFX Team LIVE to Cover the RBA Rate Decision

In contrast, mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may continue to drag on the dollar as it tames expectations for three Fed rate-hikes in 2017. Even though the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show the economy adding another 180K jobs in July, a downtick in Average Hourly Earnings may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to retain the current stance throughout the remainder of the year as inflation continues to run below the 2% target. In turn, the bullish AUD/USD behavior may persist over the days ahead as Fed Fund Futures still highlight a 50% probability for a move in December.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior

Download the DailyFX 3Q Forecasts

AUD/USD may face a near-term pullback as it starts to carve a series of lower highs & lows following the failed attempt to close above the 0.8020 (38.2% expansion) hurdle. However, the key developments on tap for the week ahead may fuel the change in AUD/USD behavior as the pair breaks out of the bearish trend from 2016. Keep in mind the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting in oversold territory for the first time since 2014, with the oscillator highlighting the risk for a further advance in aussie-dollar as long as it holds above 70. Need the RSI to flash a textbook sell-signal and threaten the bullish formation from May to raise the risk for a near-term correction in the exchange rate.

AUD/USD Retail Sentiment

Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior

Check out the new gauge developed by DailyFX based on trader positioning.

Retail trader data shows 32.9% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.04 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.74387; price has moved 7.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 16.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.1% lower than yesterday and 13.3% lower from last week.

Sign up for David's e-mail distribution list

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES