News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/ysyX7W3yGa
  • If you missed this week's session on IGCS where I discussed recent trends in positioning for the #DowJones, #SP500, $AUDUSD and $GBPUSD, discussing the outlook, check out the recording here - https://t.co/KpftLsNaTh
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (SEP) Actual: 0.2% Previous: 0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/ENnLsj88Ta
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (SEP) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • USD/JPY and GBP/JPY may reverse lower in the near-term as both exchange rates fail to breach key resistance. CAD/JPY rates eyeing a retest of its post-crisis high. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/NptWy89cTa https://t.co/wbPm8lD0C0
  • - S&P 500 unimpressed by ongoing fiscal talks as #election nears - Third and final presidential debate coming up: what to expect - Why might the #SP500 index target an inflection point 3361? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/10/20/SP-500-Uninspired-by-Fiscal-Talks-Ahead-of-Final-Presidential-Debate.html
  • Join @ddubrovskyFX 's #webinar at 8:00 PM ET / 0:00 GMT to find out what information you can gain from knowing what other traders are buying or selling. Register here: https://t.co/Bb3CTCTm44 https://t.co/k1eyZzhAWa
  • The British Pound may fall if EU and UK negotiators fail to reach a consensus as the December 31 deadline nears. The third presidential debate is on deck, how might markets react? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/kDSYzBDA3t https://t.co/wmltuIVo5h
  • #BTC testing confluent resistance at the Ascending Channel midpoint and September high (12067) RSI hints at further gains as it surges towards overbought territory Is #Bitcoin poised to break back above key resistance at the $12,000 mark? https://t.co/YCPnKq0VcJ https://t.co/EgHA4jELhI
Aussie Dollar May Look Past RBA as FOMC, NFP Take Center Stage

Aussie Dollar May Look Past RBA as FOMC, NFP Take Center Stage

2016-10-28 22:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Aussie Dollar May Look Past RBA as FOMC, NFP Take Center Stage

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Australian Dollar remains mired in narrow range below US$0.78
  • Status-quo RBA rate decision unlikely to offer firm direction cues
  • FOMC policy statement, US jobs data line up as breakout triggers

See what short-term AUD/USD patterns hint about on-coming trends with the GSI indicator!

Concrete trend development proved elusive for the Australian Dollar yet again last week. The currency was mired in a now-familiar range below 0.78 against its US counterpart despite an ample supply of would-be breakout catalysts including domestic CPI and US GDP data. An upgrade in the potential potency of event risk in the week ahead may finally shake prices loose of their confines.

The RBA monetary policy announcement is in the spotlighton the domestic front. The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent, with the priced-in probability of a decrease at just 5 percent. This puts the onus on any forward guidance to be offered in the policy statement released following the sit-down.

Investors are positioned for standstill over the coming 12 months and this seems unlikely to change. Australian economic news-flow has been relatively stable in recent months, suggesting the RBA is unlikely to feel pressured to expand stimulus or begin laying the groundwork for a tightening cycle. With that in mind, the rate decision may translate into a non-event.

The risk of externally-inspired volatility is acute however. The FOMC monetary policy announcement takes top billing, with traders keen to see if Chair Yellen and company will demonstrably signal that a rate hike is on tap in December. The publication of October’s US Employment report will fan the flames of speculation further.

The markets see the probability of a December rate hike at 69 percent. A hawkish policy statement matching the tone of recent Fed rhetoric coupled with steady dissent from pro-hike officials and a decent payrolls print (keeping the trend average stable near 200k) may boost conviction. This might undermine the Aussie’s yield appeal and hurt risk appetite, which could bode doubly ill for the sentiment-sensitive currency.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES