News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD pushed to fresh lows around 1.2610 today, hitting its lowest level since the spring of 2018. $USD $CAD https://t.co/3QUssEABVU
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.14% Gold: -0.35% Oil - US Crude: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Tg6bH3xQw1
  • 💶 Consumer Confidence Flash (JAN) Actual: -15.5 Expected: -15 Previous: -13.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
  • Join us for a special #webinar at 11:00 AM EST/16:00 GMT where you can learn how to identify price trends with trader sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/MqVMi2INbJ https://t.co/IyPYLVzQEb
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 71.54%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RCA1oyMCcL
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.38% Gold: -0.44% Oil - US Crude: -0.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OAvmToO5ys
  • Heads Up:💶 Consumer Confidence Flash (JAN) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -15 Previous: -13.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
  • Cryptos LOD...#btc #eth #ltc #bch #cryptocurrencies @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom https://t.co/bUcGhe12Qc
  • Overall, with little surprises in the monetary policy announcement, the Euro saw little in the way of notable price action. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/PFl52rx4mE https://t.co/kT5dBmz2Ya
  • $GBPUSD rose above 1.3700 today, hitting its highest level since the spring of 2018. $GBP $USD https://t.co/gfNCg6Abnr
Aussie Dollar to Track Risk Trends on Fed Outlook, Brexit Bets

Aussie Dollar to Track Risk Trends on Fed Outlook, Brexit Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Aussie Dollar to Track Risk Trends on Fed Outlook, Brexit Bets

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Thin economic calendar leaves Aussie at the mercy of risk trends
  • US activity data, Powell comments to inform Fed rate hike views
  • “Brexit” polling increasingly focus as referendum looms ahead

Check out the latest standings for the FXCM $10k trading contest HERE.

A lull in high-profile event risk leaves the Australian Dollar without readily-available fundamental catalysts in the week ahead. This puts prices at the mercy of risk sentiment trends as financial markets continue to focus on establishing big-picture narratives leading up to potentially explosive volatility next month.

Prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the June or July policy meetings jumped last week on the back of overtly hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials in speeches and within minutes from April’s FOMC meeting. Investors now see a better-than-even chance of an increase by July having previously discounted tightening at least until December.

From here, May’s flash US PMI readings, the Durable Goods Orders report and revised first-quarter GDP figures will inform investors on the Fed’s wherewithal to make good on its aggressive language. US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past week, opening the door for upside surprises that may bolster tightening bets and trigger risk-off trade, weighing on the Aussie.

On the Fed-speak front, traders will be keen to evaluate remarks from Governor Jerome Powell. Presidents of regional Fed branches have seemed consistently more hawkish than the three members of the Board of Governors outside of Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer. If Mr. Powell’s remarks mirror the hawkish tone of last week’s commentary, they may go a significant way toward boosting the probability of an imminent hike in the minds of investors.

The looming “Brexit” referendum represents the other major theme in play. A poll of polls by the Financial Times shows 47 percent of respondents now favor the UK staying within the EU while 41 percent back leaving it. As the June 23 vote draws closer, pre-positioning is likely to become more active and updated polling numbers will probably stoke a greater degree of volatility.

Gains for the “Bremain” camp are likely to prove supportive for risk appetite and the Aussie alike, while increased chances of a “Brexit” outcome generate the opposite results. Whatever the merits of the arguments on either side of the debate, financial markets loathe uncertainty. With that in mind, it seems only logical that investors would prefer the status quo to an unprecedented exit of a major member state out of the EU.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES