News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM - Japanese Yen Outlook: $USDJPY Drops on Haven Flows as Traders Brace for #FOMC Link: htt…
  • Please join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here:
  • US Dollar Outlook: Fed Decision Due - Will it Spark Fireworks? The $DXY edged lower on Tuesday with $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, and $USDJPY all feeling Dollar weakness. Will the Fed catch markets off-guard with another hawkish surprise tomorrow? Link to Analysis -
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • USD/JPY price action has weakened sharply on the session but is searching for support. Get your $USDJPY market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Stocks Decline Despite Stellar Tech Earnings, All Eyes Shift to Fed $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $NDX L…
  • $SPX put in for an impressive midday recovery this past session leaving a large lower wick. The scale of the lower wicks consistently larger than corrections off highs
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 103.2 Previous: 110.3
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via
  • US API Stock Changes Crude -4.728M Cushing -0.126M Gasoline -6.226M Distillate -1.882M #OOTT $CL_F
US Dollar May Resume Rise as CPI Data Drives Fed Policy Bets

US Dollar May Resume Rise as CPI Data Drives Fed Policy Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • June’s US CPI data in focus as the markets weigh Fed policy outlook
  • Upside surprise in line with recent news-flow may stoke tightening bets
  • EUR/USD might resume two-month downtrend as the Dollar gains

June’s US CPI report stands out as the first bit of heavy-duty event risk this week, and may have the potential to revive volatility after a relatively slow start Monday. It is expected to show that the core inflation rate – which excludes volatile items like food and energy – rose to a 29-year high of 4 percent on-year.

US price growth measures has increasingly outperformed relative to baseline forecasts, according to data from Citigroup. Indeed, realized results are outstripping expectations by the largest margin on record since at least 1998. That implies analysts’ models understand reflation, setting the stage for another upside surprise.

Such an outcome is likely to stoke speculation about acceleration in the timeline for the start of Fed stimulus withdrawal – a so-called “tapering” of QE asset purchases – and subsequent interest rate hikes. That may drive the US Dollar higher against most of its G10 FX peers. The Yen might be a notable exception.


The Euro managed a spirited bounce against the US Dollar late last week but the dominant near-term downtrend carved out from the mid-May top remains intact. Bearish resumption that manages a daily close under swing-low support at 1.1781 looks like to expose the March low at 1.1704 next.

Immediate resistance is in the 1.1836-86 congestion area. Establishing a foothold back above that may pave the way for another challenge of the 1.1952-90 inflection region. If this too is overcome, neutralization of immediate selling pressure might set the stage for revisiting the 1.21 figure.

US Dollar May Resume Rise as CPI Data Drives Fed Policy Bets

EUR/USD daily chart created withTradingView


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC at

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.