We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • $CL_F $USO #OOTT https://t.co/mxxcRdPHcL
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/ciezHCrgwm https://t.co/RjUc2YOLQk
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.92% Gold: 0.19% Oil - US Crude: -0.96% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tNZVRWuqxa
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 106.99 S2: 107.49 S1: 107.8 R1: 108.3 R2: 108.49 R3: 108.99 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.87%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oMqXKRmxpn
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0847 S2: 1.0936 S1: 1.0969 R1: 1.1058 R2: 1.1115 R3: 1.1204 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.11% $SPX +0.25% $NDX +0.46% $RTY -0.38% $VIX -1.70%
  • #Brent: A break above $69.34 could push the price for a test of yesterday’s High at $71.03. Get your technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/QE5zVInhPb #OOTT https://t.co/xQhpDP0UdB
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.08% France 40: 0.03% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Q0YYr8lAED
  • There is a significant disparity in US equity performance ($DJIA, green) and 'rest of world' ($VEU, blue). The global measure ($ACWI, candle) though presents the most impressive technical picture https://t.co/yCsUxO1xnK
Dollar May Rise if Soft US GDP Data Spooks the Markets

Dollar May Rise if Soft US GDP Data Spooks the Markets

2019-04-26 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist


  • Aussie, NZ Dollars correct higher after hitting four-month lows
  • First-quarter US GDP data in focus, disappointment risk seen
  • US Dollar may rise if soft growth drives haven-seeking demand

Currency markets appeared to be in corrective in Asia Pacific trade. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly outperformed, extending a recovery traced out over the prior session launched after hitting four-month lows. The recently buoyant US Dollar edged modestly lower.

The spotlight now turns to first-quarter US GDP data. It is expected to show that the annualized growth rate ticked up to 2.3 percent in the first three months of 2019, up from 2.2 percent previously. Recent US macro news-flow has mostly lagged relative to forecasts however, warning of incoming disappointment.

A downbeat print is likely to stoke fears about ongoing global slowdown, putting financial markets on the defensive. In the absence of meaningful Fed rate hike prospects, any further dovish in policy bets may be overshadowed by liquidity demand amid de-risking, boosting the Greenback.

The similarly anti-risk Japanese Yen may likewise benefit. It has tracked higher in what looks like pre-positioning for the Golden Week holiday lull. A US GDP print that encourages divestment from JPY-funding carry trades as investors reduce exposure to risky assets may see the rally gain momentum.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!


Dollar May Rise if Soft US GDP Data Spooks the Markets

Citing the relative strength of the US economy has been commonplace among market-watches recently. While the performance of other pace-setting economies – notably the Eurozone and China – has been disappointing by comparison, the US seems far from immune amid the ongoing slowdown in global growth.

The chart shows the pace of worldwide manufacturing- and service-sector growth – as tracked by the JPMorgan Global PMI index – has been slowing since early 2018. Against this backdrop, US economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to analysts’ projections, according to data from Citigroup.

Put another way, economists producing forecasts for US data releases appear to envision far rosier conditions than reality has ratified. What’s more, deepening underperformance suggests optimism has been impervious to countervailing evidence so far, setting the stage for further downside surprises.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.