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  • Brazilian Central Bank hikes 100bps as expected. We have to split hairs for 'hawkish/dovish' in the Fed's views. Pretty straightforward here...
  • Central Bank of Brazil: - Raises Selic rate by 100 basis points to 6.25% - BBG
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  • Speaking of monetary policy changes, the Brazilian central bank is due to announce its updated policies and the economist consensus is for a 100bp hike to 6.25%. Keep an eye on $USDBRL. Scenario with the most market-moving potential in my book would be a hold and USDBRL rally
  • The implied rate hikes from the Fed through the end of next year (Dec 2022 vs current Fed Fund futures contracts) jumped after today's FOMC report. Goes a long way towards explaining the $DXY Dollar jump here
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 6.25% Previous: 5.25%
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Yen, US Dollar May Fall in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Rate Decision

Yen, US Dollar May Fall in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Rate Decision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • NZ Dollar bounces from two-week low following business confidence data
  • Yen may trim APAC session gains as S&P 500 futures hint at risk-on bias
  • US Dollar may fall as markets position for a dovish FOMC rate decision

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in Asia Pacific trade, enjoying support from nominally upbeat business confidence data. The figures seemed to trigger a correction from the two-week low where the currency has been lingering after last Friday’s plunge. The Japanese Yen dutifully rose as regional stocks declined, boosting the perennially anti-risk currency.

Looking ahead, a quiet offering on the economic data front in Europe and the US seems likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are mounting a spirited recovery ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting that a rebound may be ahead after yesterday’s blood-letting. That seems reasonable as traders neutralize exposure ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision.

The Yen may give back some of its latest advance against this backdrop while sentiment-geared commodity bloc currencies find support. The US Dollar may find itself on the defensive as investors position for a dovish turn in Fed rhetoric. Indeed, the priced-in 2019 rate hike path has flattened in anticipation, with even one increase next year now seen as uncertain. Such skepticism seems likely to be disappointed however.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.