TALKING POINTS – CANADIAN DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, AUSSIE DOLLAR, YEN, BRITISH POUND, BREXIT
- Canadian Dollar broadly lower, echoing crude oil price pullback
- Yen down, Aussie Dollar up as markets digest Friday’s volatility
- British Pound backtracking after soaring on Brexit deal optimism
The Canadian Dollar underperformed in an otherwise quiet start to the trading week for G10 FX currencies. The moves seems to echo the recent pullback in oil prices. Crude is an important part of the Canada’s export mix and weakness there can be seen as a headwind for overall growth, which can be extrapolated to bets on lower inflationary pressure and thereby a more timid view of BOC rate hike prospects.
Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars edged cautiously higher while the Yen pulled back. These swings seemed to be corrective after swelling Fed rate hike bets soured market-wide sentiment, sinking typically pro-risk commodity currencies while offering a lift to the perennially anti-risk Japanese unit. For its part, the US Dollar continued to rise as the priced-in 2019 tightening path steepened further.
The British Pound was also in digestion mode, trading broadly lower following explosive gains last week amid hopes for a Brexit breakthrough on the horizon. Sterling locked its biggest three-day rally in over a year on Friday’s close of trade. Scope for upside resumption may be limited for now as markets wait for chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier to present what may be the blueprint for a final deal on Wednesday.
CURRENCIES MAY RETRACE RECENT MOVES AHEAD OF EVENT RISK
Looking ahead, a thin offering on the economic calendar might make for a consolidative tone Monday. Potent upcoming event risk by way of an IMF global economic forecast update (Tuesday) and US CPI data (Wednesday) might sap directional conviction in the interim. That may offer space for major currencies to retrace some of the price action from the final 24-48 hour of last week’s trade.
See our US Dollar forecast to learn what will shape price action in the fourth quarter!
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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