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US Dollar May Rise as Minutes Show FOMC Looking Past Trump Trade

US Dollar May Rise as Minutes Show FOMC Looking Past Trump Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Soft UK PMI surveys may weigh on the British Pound
  • US Dollar may rise on March FOMC meeting minutes
  • Yen gains in quiet Asian trade as Japanese stocks fall

A quiet European economic data docket is headlined by a pair of UK PMI surveys. News-flow has increasingly softened relative to forecasts since mid-February, opening the door for disappointment that may weigh on the British Pound. Indeed, soft manufacturing PMI data did just that earlier in the week.

Later in the day, minutes from the March FOMC meeting will dominate the spotlight. The US Dollar is likely to rise if it appears like central bank officials are not relying on the expectation of inflationary fiscal policy championed by the Trump White House to make the case for continued rate hikes.

The ADP gauge of US jobs growth and the service-sector ISM survey are also on tap. Both are seen deteriorating in March compared with the prior month. While this may bode ill for a greenback that has rediscovered a sensitivity to data flow, follow-through ahead of the FOMC minutes seems unlikely.

The Yen edged higher in otherwise quiet Asian trade. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index plunged after gapping higher at the daily trading open, boosting demand for the standby anti-risk currency. The rest of the G10 FX space was all but motionless.

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Asia Session

US Dollar May Rise as Minutes Show FOMC Looking Past Trump Trade

European Session

US Dollar May Rise as Minutes Show FOMC Looking Past Trump Trade

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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