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Currency Markets Face Reversal Risk in Thin Pre-Holiday Trade

Currency Markets Face Reversal Risk in Thin Pre-Holiday Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar retraces lower after yesterday’s Yellen-inspired rise
  • Australian Dollar stung by dovish shift in RBA policy outlook
  • Year-end flows may thrive amid liquidity drain, event risk lull

The US Dollar retraced downward in overnight trade having outperformed against most of its major counterparts yesterday. That move seemed to be inspired by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that put the spotlight back on the steepening in the projected 2017 rate hike path in recent weeks.

It was the Australian Dollar that underperformed however, losing aground against the entire G10 FX spectrum. The move tracked a drop in front-end bond yields, suggesting a shift in RBA policy bets toward the dovish side of the spectrum drove the selloff. A singular spark for the move was not readily apparent.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket in European and US hours leaves markets somewhat rudderless. This coupled with thinning pre-holiday liquidity conditions may make for lackluster activity. As noted in our weekly forecast however, the lull may give way to market-wide reversals ahead of the year-end.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (NOV)

6220

-

6230

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (NOV)

-705m

-500m

-815m

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (NOV)

3.86b

4.00b

3.91b

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (NOV)

4.56b

4.50b

4.72b

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NZ$) (NOV)

-3175m

-2951m

-3266m

23:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

-

0.1%

0:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

-

-0.3%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (NOV)

-4.2%

-

3.0%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (NOV)

4.1%

-

10.1%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (NOV)

0.8%

-

0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

French PPI (MoM) (NOV)

-

0.8%

Low

7:45

EUR

French PPI (YoY) (NOV)

-

-0.9%

Low

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (NOV)

1.9%

2.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (NOV)

-

-3.4b

Low

9:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (NOV)

-

-4.0b

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (NOV)

11.6b

4.3b

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (NOV)

12.2b

4.8b

Low

15:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (DEC A)

-6.0

-6.1

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0254

1.0320

1.0354

1.0386

1.0420

1.0452

1.0518

GBP/USD

1.2171

1.2267

1.2318

1.2363

1.2414

1.2459

1.2555

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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